Eye On Boise

Smith poll: 50% undecided on Ward, Labrador

May 11, 2010 3:54 p.m. • 5 comments

Eagle, Idaho pollster Greg Smith says he’s done a poll in the 1st Congressional District GOP primary race that finds 50 percent of voters undecided, just weeks before the May 25 primary election. Smith said his poll of 400 voters in the 1st CD showed 34 percent support Vaughn Ward in the GOP primary, 16 percent favor Raul Labrador, and 50 percent were “undecided/don’t know/refused/other.” Smith said the same poll showed, for the general election, incumbent Democratic Congressman Walt Minnick as the favored candidate for 50 percent of respondents, with just 20 percent choosing “the Republican candidate” instead.

Smith said his poll was taken the week of May 3, and included 400 1st CD residents age 18 or older who “say they are either very or somewhat likely to vote in the May 2010 primary election;” his firm, Greg Smith & Associates, commissioned and funded the poll itself. You can click here to see the full results.

Five comments on this post so far. Add yours!

spokelooneh on May 11 at 5:53 p.m.
You’d think Labrador had payed for that, as the analysis seems rather more negative on Ward (even though, as we know, Ward has made some major gaffes lately, and typically keeps digging when he has to respond.

” Given the obvious time, energy and resources that Vaughn Ward has expended in over a year of campaigning (approx. 10-1 ratio of funding advantage over Raul Labrador), his recent campaign occurrences (e.g., the seeming Fannie Mae bailout hypocrisy, the lateness of paying Valley County taxes, the use of Marine apparel in an ad without nonendorsement disclosure, ***and a reversal on his 17th Amendment stand) are undoubtedly affecting his electoral standing.”

The 17th Amendment flip-flop was AFTER this poll was taken, so it couldn’t have been a factor and seems to just be a shot at Ward.
gregsm on May 11 at 8:17 p.m.
The analysis, however, was done after the poll was taken. The 17th amendment point was meant to be an example — not a reason in and of itself for Ward’s standing.
OutofStaterTater on May 11 at 9:04 p.m.
Take this poll with a healthy dose of salt, not just a grain. Greg Smith does this frequently during election years. He commissions a poll out of his own pocket, shops the results around, hoping media outlets will bite. The resulting news story generates publicity for “Greg Smith & Associates,” which he then uses to drum up some more business.

Greg has to do this because he doesn’t get much repeat business. An example of why - you all remember Matt Salisbury? Nice guy. He had Greg do a poll for the ‘08 primary between himself and Bill Sali. Four days before the primary, Salisbury’s campaign staff was running to and fro telling everyone “We just got poll results that show us trailing Sali by only 3 points!” Salisbury lost by 20.

The Treasure Valley is full of past candidates and campaigns who have been snookered by Greg Smith’s shoddy polling. “Snake oil salesman” comes to mind.
fortboise on May 11 at 9:13 p.m.
Odd to see Smith’s headline saying “slim lead.” 34-16% does not seem like a slim lead to me. With 50% undecided, things could certainly change, but that doesn’t change the gap between the stated numbers.
WildWest on May 12 at 11:07 a.m.
Pollster Smith, LMFAO, This is the same dude who used push polls in the Eagle mayoral election to influence potential voters against McDavid.

Smith operates a questionable polling businesses that uses odd questions designed not to elicit the most accurate reflection of public opinion, but attempts to sway public opinion with misinformation.

Smith’s polling is predictably biased towards conservatives at all levels of elections,Smith got his partisan reputation the old fashioned way he earned it.