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Eye On Boise

Fri., July 19, 2013, 8:41 a.m.

Historical odds against Smith beating Simpson in primary: 23-1

The odds are against 2nd District Congressman Mike Simpson being defeated by GOP primary challenger Bryan Smith – by 23 to 1, reports Idaho Statesman columnist Dan Popkey. That’s based on a review of Idaho election history by a University of Minnesota political scientist, who found that in the 61 congressional elections since Idaho became a state, 96 percent of incumbent congressmen have won their party’s nomination. Only one Idaho incumbent has lost his party’s nomination in the modern era, with three of the four upsets coming between 1908 and 1918. Since 1918, the incumbent renomination success rate is almost 99 percent, 81 out of 82, and the one exception was when well-known Idaho politician George Hansen made his comeback run. You can read Popkey’s full post here.

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Betsy Z. Russell
Betsy Z. Russell joined The Spokesman-Review in 1991. She currently is a reporter in the Boise Bureau covering Idaho state government and politics, and other news from Idaho's state capital.

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