Southeastern Idaho is overdue for a major earthquake, according to a new report from the U.S. Geological Survey. Boise State Public Radio reports that the USGS is predicting that a “big one” will hit the Bear Lake Fault in the next 50 years. The likelihood of a magnitude 6.0 quake coming in the next half-century was estimated at 63 percent; that’s big enough to cause major damage.

A team of consultants affiliated with Idaho State University who have modeled an earthquake in the region say any quake over a magnitude 5.0 would cause damage totaling more than $250 million; BSU Radio’s full report is online here.