Idaho's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has dropped for the ninth straight month, falling to 7.7 percent for April. That's two-tenths of a percentage point down from March. Idaho Department of Labor spokesman Bob Fick said employers hired at seasonal levels in April, and the number of Idahoans with jobs was up by 1,700 from March. Hiring in all sectors was normal for this time of the year, Fick reported, except for government and professional and business services, which saw below-normal hiring. It was the third straight month that hires have exceeded the five-year average. You can read Fick's full report here.
  

April is by far the biggest month of the year for state tax revenue collections, as taxpayers all over the state file their income tax returns during the month, so it's closely watched for signs of the health of the overall state budget. The numbers are in now, and April's collections beat the forecast, coming in a scant $500,000 above but bringing the year-to-date surplus - the amount collected over the state's forecast for the year - to just over $37 million. That's for the 2012 fiscal year, which runs through July 1. Among the drivers of the April surplus was the sales tax, which was up 6.3 percent from the same time last year; and miscellaneous taxes, which are up significantly due to strong interest earnings, a settlement with a drug company and high collections from the mine license tax. Both individual and corporate income taxes were below forecast for the month, but both remain ahead of forecasts for the fiscal year to date.

You can read the state Division of Financial Management's April revenue report here, and the Legislature's April Budget and Revenue Monitor here. This is the fifth straight month that Idaho's state tax revenues have exceeded forecasts, and lawmakers budgeted below the forecasts. State lawmakers set the current year's budget assuming just 3 percent growth in state revenues; instead, it's been more than 5.7 percent. That means a big and growing year-end surplus this year, which lawmakers have decided should go directly into the state's rainy-day fund. With the current numbers, nearly $60 million will go into the state's Budget Stabilization Fund on July 1.

Here are some signs of economic recovery, courtesy of the Idaho Department of Labor: Thirty-seven of Idaho's 44 counties saw total personal income rise in 2010, vs. just five in 2009, according to new estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, business profits rose more than wages, jumping 13 percent statewide, vs. 2.1 percent for worker paychecks.

Some examples: In Boundary County, total income was up  6.8 percent from the previous year, even though the average wage, at $31,114, fell 1.1 percent, and the number of jobs, 3,636, was down 2.5 percent. Kootenai County saw a 1.5 percent drop in the number of jobs, but a 2.2 percent rise in the average wage to $33,071; total income was up 3.3 percent. In Shoshone County, total income was up 6.4 percent, while the average wage was up 8.3 percent to $35,214, even as the number of jobs fell 3.3 percent. You can read Labor's full announcement here, including county-by-county data.

March was the fourth straight month that state tax revenues came in ahead of forecast, running $3.9 million ahead, according to the latest figures. For the fiscal year to date, that puts the state $36.6 million ahead of projections. Among the strong spots: Sales taxes and individual income taxes. That brings state tax revenue growth to date for the fiscal year to 5.5 percent, well above the predicted 3.3 percent. You can read the state Division of Financial Management's monthly General Fund Revenue Report here, and the legislative budget office's General Fund Budget Monitor here.

The legislative monitor notes that that latest figures push Idaho tax revenue to $91.7 million more than last year at this time. The result, given HB 702, which passed this year and transfers any additional surpluses at the end of fiscal year 2012 into the Budget Stabilization Fund, will be larger deposits into that reserve account, up to nearly $60 million.
  

Idaho ranks 43rd among the states for its gender pay gap, according to a new study from the American Association of University Women, which found that, based on 2010 federal data, the median pay for a full-time worker over age 16 in Idaho is $41,128 for men, but just $30,403 for women. That means Idaho women earn 74 percent as much as Idaho men; State Impact Idaho reports here that it's just the latest study highlighting Idaho's gender pay gap.

Neighboring Washington and Oregon ranked 27th and 28th, at 77 percent; while neighboring Utah and Montana fared even worse than Idaho in the study, with Montana ranking 46th at 73 percent and Utah 49th at 69 percent.

Interestingly, the Idaho Statesman recently highlighted a pay gap among top women in Gov. Butch Otter's administration, which Otter declined to discuss with the newspaper; their report found that Otter's female cabinet members earn 83 percent of what their male counterparts earn. I reported on a similar finding in June of 2010, when I found that of the 77 heads of Idaho state agencies under the Otter administration, 27 were women and 50 were men, and the average salary for the male agency heads was $109,658, while for the females it was $88,681. Otter said then that he would analyze the gap. “If there's inequities, then we oughta correct them where we can and as soon as we can.” Click below to read my 2012 report.

Here's a news item from the Associated Press:  BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter's proposed budget got a little boost from the latest tax revenue collections that were $6.3 million above projections. Tuesday's release of figures for January point toward continued economic strengthening. Otter aides have been roaming the Capitol with preliminary numbers recently — to make the case that Idaho revenue will be sufficient to support the Republican's 2013 budget proposal. That includes a proposed $41 million raise for teachers and state employees, as well as a $45 million tax cut. The sales tax beat its forecast for the second straight month, exceeding expectations by $7.6 million. State economist Derek Santos says January's sales-tax performance is an important milestone because it's the month with the year's highest expected collections, on sales that took place during December's holiday shopping season.

The Legislature's General Fund Monitor for November is out, and it puts into perspective the November state tax revenues, which came in $5.4 million below projections, making a cumulative shortfall below projections for the fiscal year to date of $16.2 million, or 1.6 percent. Lawmakers budgeted for well below the projected amounts, however. What the numbers mean: Idaho is looking at a year-end surplus of roughly $156.7 million in its general fund.

That's the difference between the ending balance lawmakers expected to have at the end of the fiscal year and the amount they're now projected to end up with, if the Legislature covered all fire, hazard and deficiency costs already incurred. It doesn't take into account supplemental budget requests for the current year that lawmakers will consider when they convene in January, but those total only about $30 million. You can  see the November General Fund Monitor here.
  

Idaho Gov. Butch Otter is sounding a cautionary note, after November state tax revenues came in $5.4 million below projections, for a cumulative year-to-date shortfall vs. projections of $16.2 million; that's 1.6 percent below the forecast. Since lawmakers and the governor budgeted for spending well below the projected amounts, there's no shortfall, but Otter's warning that projected big budget surpluses could shrink. “The more probable scenario is for both FY 2012 and FY 2013 to continue to be years of limited growth that will require us to be very selective in the authorization of new General Fund spending,” he wrote today in a letter to members of his cabinet. You can read the monthly general fund revenue report here.
  

Idaho Gov. Butch Otter has sent out a guest opinion entitled, “Leaner, more focused government must be our new normal,” that already has appeared in the Capitol Hill newspaper “Roll Call,” in which he says Idaho sets “an example of responsible governance for the rest of America.” Otter says the state did that by not raising taxes and balancing its budget. “It wasn't easy, and it wasn't always popular,” he writes. Click below for his full opinion piece.

In what's long been considered something of a warmup for the legislative session, the Associated Taxpayers of Idaho will hold its annual conference on Dec. 1, inviting business and government leaders, taxpayers and others to hear a series of presentations about federal, state and local government finances, the impact of a slower-growing economy over the next 10 years, and the outlook for this year's legislative session; typically, about 300 people attending, including numerous legislators. The event will run from 8:30 a.m. to 3:15 p.m. at the Boise Centre, Summit Auditorium. The conference, which includes a luncheon featuring Lt. Gov. Brad Little, is open to all, but costs $100 for non-ATI members, or $50 for the luncheon only; there's more info here.

Here's a news item from the Associated Press: BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Overseas demand for Idaho dairy products and silver helped drive export growth to 16.6 percent from July to September, keeping the state on pace for record out-of-country sales for 2011. Idaho's third-quarter export growth trailed the national rate of 17.7 percent, compared to the year-ago period. Department of Commerce director Jeff Sayer says international markets continued to be a bright spot for Idaho's economy. Dairy exports rose by 70 percent to $194 million as fast-growing Asia Pacific countries had an appetite for whey protein and powdered milk. High prices for precious metals increased demand for mining products, where exports more than doubled to $362 million. And while domestic construction remains mired in a slump, Idaho wood products exports to Canada, Japan, Mexico and China rose 58 percent to $79 million.

Here's a news item from the Associated Press:  BOISE, Idaho (AP) — The J.R. Simplot Co. is planning to build a new potato processing plant in Caldwell. But it's coming at a cost for the company's employees elsewhere in Idaho. Company executives announced Wednesday plans to build a 380,000-square-foot facility designed to help keep Simplot competitive. Officials say the new facility in Caldwell means the company will shut down older plants in Aberdeen and Nampa in the next two or three years, resulting in the loss of fewer than 800 jobs. Spokesman David Cuoio says competitors have better plants that are more efficient and Simplot needs to modernize to keep pace. The new facility will be built on the site of the company's original potato processing plant in Caldwell. Executives are not releasing the cost of the new plant.

Idaho's general fund revenues for October are in, and they're almost exactly on target, missing the forecast by just 0.7 percent. At $209.9 million, the month's tax take is $1.6 million below the $211.4 million forecast. That's because sales taxes came in $4.1 million below the expected level, but all other categories came in ahead of the forecast. Individual income tax revenues for October were 5.9 percent above October of the previous year; the forecast was for 4.9 percent growth. Sales taxes were up 1.6 percent over the previous October; the forecast had called for 6.3 percent.

For the fiscal year to date, which started July 1, Idaho revenues are very close to the forecast level, falling 1.3 percent below it. You can see the full monthly general fund revenue report here.
  

Idaho's October economic forecast is out, and it's a gloomier outlook than the state's last forecast in July. That's mainly because national forecasts have changed, raising the likelihood that the national economy would slip into a recession from 25 percent in July to 40 percent in October. “The outlook for Idaho's economy has also darkened somewhat,” wrote Idaho's chief economist, Derek Santos, in the new forecast. “Instead of shifting into higher gear in the first half of 2011, job growth slipped into neutral. As a result, there were fewer jobs in the second quarter of 2011 than in the fourth quarter of 2010.”

That's depressed job-growth forecasts going several years out, Santos noted, though growth still is predicted. You can read the full forecast here, which predicts computer and electronics employment will be relatively stable; logging and wood products employment will rise 6.5 percent this year, decline slightly next year, then grow more the following two years; construction jobs are predicted to drop through 2012, then begin growing very slowly the following two years; durable good manufacturing jobs are expected to recover in 2011 what they lost in 2010; and service jobs are expected to grow.

Idaho lawmakers are facing something they haven't seen in years: A 'manageable' budget. When they convene in January, they'll likely be able to balance next year's state budget without further cuts, and even make up some cuts and start refilling the state's drained reserve funds, according to figures unveiled Tuesday. They're still wary, however. “We'll certainly know a little bit more by the time the legislative session begins,” said Senate President Pro-Tem Brent Hill. “It's a long ways from where we were five years ago, but at least it shows we're headed in the right direction.”

After legislative budget chief Cathy Holland-Smith briefed Idaho's Legislative Council on budget scenarios including one assuming 3 percent revenue growth next year, state Legislative Services Director Jeff Youtz, a former longtime legislative budget chief, said he was struck by the fact that the scenarios all showed Idaho easily covering its costs next year, without having to dip into reserves to balance the books. “We haven't been able to do that in three years. We have some options,” Youtz said. “We've got a manageable budget situation.” Said Wayne Hammon, Gov. Butch Otter's budget chief, “We still have a lot of work to do on the budget, but it's not going to be as painful as it's been.” Otter's looking as possibly restoring some cuts to education and addressing hard-hit state employee compensation. You can read my full story here at spokesman.com.
  

Idaho's general fund revenue report is in for September, and it's almost exactly on target, coming in very slightly over the forecasted level (about $69,400 above). That means state revenues for September of $229.1 million were on target at 9.5 percent higher than the same month the previous year. State chief economist Derek Santos reports that while sales taxes came in slightly below forecast for the month, at $91.6 million compared to a forecasted $93 million, all other categories of revenue came in ahead of forecast, including individual income tax receipts, which were $1 million ahead of forecast at $93 million. Since the fiscal year began July 1, total state tax collections are coming in very close to the forecast, lagging just 1.4 percent behind ($9.2 million). You can see all the numbers here.

Here's a news item from the Associated Press:  BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho's unemployment rate dipped to 9.2 percent in August, down from 9.4 percent in July. The state Department of Labor released the latest jobless numbers Friday. While Idaho posted its lowest unemployment rate since May 2010, the agency says 70,000 workers were still without jobs last month. Camas County had the highest jobless rate at 16.9 percent, while the lowest was recorded in Owyhee County at 5.3 percent. Nationwide, Idaho was among 12 states where the jobless rate decreased. The federal Labor Department reported Friday that unemployment rates increased in 26 other states and were unchanged in the remaining 12 states. The national unemployment rate stayed at 9.1 percent for the second straight month.

Here's a news item from the Associated Press:  BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho missed tax revenue forecasts in August by 4.4 percent or $8.7 million, as individual income tax and sales tax receipts lagged expectations. After two months of the fiscal year, total collections are $403 million, or $9.2 million less than forecast. Individual income tax collections in August were $91.4 million, about 3.9 million less than forecast. Sales tax receipts were expected to be $93.6 million, but came in at only $86.8 million. Remaining revenue categories hit their targets or were only slightly below. State lawmakers and Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter are watching tax receipts in hopes of Idaho producing a second year of surpluses following the Great Recession. If Idaho hits its fiscal year 2012 target, it should have about $180 million more than is in the current spending plan.

Idaho wages slipped during the recession compared to other states, the Idaho Department of Labor reports, with the average wage falling from 37th in the nation in 2008 to 38th in 2010, and the median wage falling from 35th to 39th. In 2010, the latest survey put Idaho's average wage for all jobs at $18.56 an hour, 15 percent below the national average. The median was $14.54 an hour, 12 percent below the national median; you can read the full labor report here.

Idaho Gov. Butch Otter is promising more of the same from his administration: tight budgeting that may underestimate state revenues, forcing budget cuts that later prove unnecessary, to avoid mid-year holdbacks. That approach attracted criticism this year after Otter and state lawmakers discounted economic forecasts and set the state budget tens of millions of dollars lower than estimated revenues, then ended the fiscal year June 30 with a fat surplus, most of which was doled back out to make up budget cuts to schools.

“You can expect the same thing the remainder of my time in office,” Otter declared last week in a talk at a luncheon sponsored by the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce and attended by more than 400 people. “The future budgets that we’ll have in the state are going to not look an awful lot unlike budgets that we’ve had the last three and a half years,” Otter said. “We’re still going to be conservative. We’re still going to work at institutionalizing a lot of the changes that we made during this economic downturn.” You can read my full Sunday column here.