On his Johnson Report today, Marc Johnson offers "7 Rules of Politics" including the famous Tip O'Neill point that "all politics is local" and "beware the candidate who is first to say 'the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.' That candidate is surely running behind." He begins:

Forty days out in what has seemed like a presidential election campaign that might never end, things are about to get really interesting. The TV ads are flying – at least in Ohio – the debates loom, the charges fly and the pundits spout. But what does it all mean? Today no analysis – historic or otherwise – just seven rules collected over 35 years of reporting on politics, working on two statewide campaigns and trying to understand the great ebb and flow of American politics. Rules to live by, if you will, in assessing the home stretch of the 2012 campaign. Complete column here.

Question: Can you offer a rule of thumb for assessing this year's presidential race?