Posts tagged: 1st Congressional District
GOP congressional hopeful Raul Labrador has issued a blistering press release in response to incumbent Rep. Walt Minnick’s decision to back out of a scheduled debate against him on KTVB-TV; in it, Labrador recalled Minnick’s comments in 2008 about the value of debates, when he challenged then-Rep. Bill Sali to a series of 10 debates across the district. “What a difference two years makes; it was all the time it took for Walt Minnick to become a fat cat Washington insider who shows nothing but contempt for the voters of Idaho and for his own previously held values,” Labrador declared/Betsy Russell, Eye On Boise. More here.
DFO: I agree with Labrador that it’s B.S. to back out of a debate — whether you’re Walt Minnick or Butch Otter. I don’t buy the ‘Washington insider’ nonsense that Labrador’s trying to sell. But I’m disgusted that incumbents can get away with this stuff.
Question: How about you?
Another newly-released national model from “The Votemaster,” the pseudonym of a computer scientist named Andrew Tanenbaum, lists Idaho’s 1st Congressional District as too close to call. Tanenbaum’s prediction model labels the race a tossup because Minnick is the incumbent in a district that traditionally favors Republicans. “Democrats not in strong Democratic districts will be potentially vulnerable,” Tanenbaum said on his website. His model doesn’t use poll information for the Minnick-Labrador race. Most polls of the race have favored Minnick. Tanenbaum’s House prediction uses fewer pieces of information than Silver, though both have had success in projecting election results. Both Tanenbaum and Silver correctly guessed how 49 states voted in the 2008 presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain, with both missing on Indiana/Brad Iverson-Long, Idaho Reporter. More here.
Question: Do you think the race between Democrat Walt Minnick and Republican Raul Labrador is too close to call?
If the General Election was held today, who would you most likely vote for in the U.S. Representative, District 1 race?
Total: 696 votes, 100% (KTVB story here)
Question: Is Raul Labrador’s poor showing in this poll another indication that the Idaho Republican Party is in trouble?
In a story in The Hill evaluating the growing strength of the Republican Party in this fall’s elections, reporters The rest of the story here.Rep. Walt Minnick, D-Idaho, and Republican Raul Labrador has moved from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.” The report continues: “Minnick has taken to Twitter to highlight the National Republican Congressional Committee’s reluctance to buy TV ad time in his once-targeted district. After party-favorite Vaughn Ward lost the primary to Raul Labrador, Republicans seem to have abandoned their ambition of unseating the conservative Democrat.”
DFO: A person in the know in Kootenai County Republican politics tells me that s/he’s thinking about voting for Minnick — as are a number of his/her Republican friends — thinking they’d rather have the incumbent for 2 more years than risk having a Bill Sali-like representative for the foreseeable future. Dunno if this person has ever voted Republican in a 1st Congressional District race. But it doesn’t bode well for Labrador.
Republican candidate for Congress Raul Labrador has signed onto a pledge to repeal the estate tax. The pledge request came from the American Family Business Institute (AFBI). … The estate tax, often called the death tax by its opponents, taxes the assets of deceased people passed down to from one generation to the next. The federal estate tax is repealed for 2010. Unless Congress acts, the estate tax will return next year, taxing all estates worth more than $1 million at a 55 percent rate. Labrador and other want to repeal it permanently. The “Death Tax Repeal Pledge” is backed by more than 20 current members of Congress, including Rep. Mike Simpson and Sen. Mike Crapo, and more than 400 candidates for Congress this year/Brad Iverson-Long, Idaho Reporter. More here.
Question: Should the death tax be permanently repealed?
The poll shows Democratic Congressman Walt Minnick leading GOP challenger Raul Labrador by 23.3 points, with Minnick at 52.1 percent and Labrador at 28.8 percent; while 1.9 percent chose “other” and 17.2 percent were undecided. That’s more than twice the Minnick lead shown in Labrador’s own poll, which he released a month ago showing Minnick with a 10-point lead. The poll had a statewide sample of 400 people, and just 200 of those were in the 1st Congressional District, so that means the margin of error for that result is well above the plus or minus 4.9 percent for the poll as a whole. But it’s still pretty interesting/Betsy Russell, Eye On Boise. More here.
Question: Why hasn’t Repub Raul Labrado seemingly been unable to gain traction against Congressman Walt Minnick, despite his big upset win over Vaughn Ward in the spring primary?
Thursday afternoon at 5:30, 1st District Republican congressional nominee Raul Labrador issued a three-page news release blasting Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick’s June 30 vote for the financial reform law signed by the president Wednesday. Three hours later, Minnick campaign manager John Foster responded in kind, in an e-mail to reporters with the subject line “Correcting Raul’s financial illiteracy, plagiarism.” Labrador’s release was posted here at Idaho Politics in full at 6 p.m. Thursday/Dan Popkey, Idaho Statesman. More here.
Question: What do you make of this dust-up over finance reform?
Here’s a link to (Betsy Russell’s full story) at spokesman.com on the news from the latest campaign finance reports in the 1st District congressional race, in which incumbent Congressman Walt Minnick has a million-dollar cash advantage over his Republican challenger, Raul Labrador. Labrador’s reaction? “I’ve been outspent before, and I’ve beaten people who outspent me and outraised me before, so it doesn’t concern me one bit.”
Question: Labrador is right in pointing out that he was vastly outspent by Vaughn Ward in his primary election. How significant is Minnick’s $1M advantage now?
You’ll note here a number of ponderables. Will left-leaning Democrats, at the end, vote for Minnick or go out and campaign for him, provide the army any candidate needs on the ground? (Don’t expect more than a handful of Republicans to go that far.) Can Labrador bring in support from across his party that runs deeper than lip service – that involves cranking in serious money and serious organizational help to match up with Minnick’s resources? to these and other relevant questions, we have no solid answers yet. We can only watch and see; but the race may turn, in at least in part, on the answers. This remains, then, one of the most watchable races in the Northwest/Randy Stapilus, Ridenbaugh Press. More here.
DFO: This may be the best break down of the race b/n Demo incumbent Walt Minnick and Republican Raul Labrador.
On the Tonight Show with Jay Leno tonight, Leno played the entire video mashup that juxtaposes clips of Barack Obama’s 2004 Democratic national convention speech with similar turns of phrase in a speech by Idaho GOP congressional candidate Vaughn Ward at the Idaho state capitol this spring, a mashup put together by Idaho GOP legislative candidate Lucas Baumbach. Leno’s kicker: “When they asked this guy if he thought he could get away with this, he said, ‘Yes we can! Yes we can!’”/Betsy Russell, Eye on Boise.
Question: Which was your favorite Ward misstep?
|REP||Harley D. Brown||2,620||3.6%|
|REP||Michael L. Chadwick||4,414||6.0%|
|REP||Raul R. Labrador||35,658||48.6%|
|REP||Allan M Salzberg||1,998||2.7%|
Ward wIns Kootenai County:
Vaughn Ward. . . . . . . . . . 5,935 46.66 Raul R. Labrador . . . . . . . . 4,716 37.08 Michael L. Chadwick . . . . . . . 1,074 8.44 Harley D. Brown . . . . . . . . 529 4.16 Allan M. Salzberg. . . . . . . . 465 3.66 Total . . . . . . . . . 12,719
Meet Vaughn Ward. He’s running in today’s Republican primary in Idaho’s 1st Congressional District. He’s an Iraq War veteran. A former CIA operations officer. A fourth-generation Idaho native. Heck, Sarah Palin supports him. And after this spring’s disastrous, gaffe-filled primary campaign — during which Ward declared that Puerto Rico was a country, apparently plagiarized fellow candidates and Barack Obama, campaigned on cutting federal spending while his wife’s gig at Fannie Mae allowed Ward to go without an income, and re-released a six-month-old endorsement — Ward may be able to add another title to his resume: Worst candidate ever/Ben Frumin, TPM. More here.
Question: C’mon, Ward isn’t even the worst candidate in the 1st Congressional District race. Harley Brown’d take those honors. What do you think of TPM’s assessment?
A late arrival to the race for Congress, state Rep. Raul Labrador (pictured) has demonstrated competence, composure and a command of nuanced policy. Despite more than a year of full-time campaigning, decorated Marine Major Vaughn Ward has proven himself untrustworthy. Labrador has earned the support of Republicans in Tuesday’s primary. He has earned the opportunity to present his case to 1st Congressional District voters in the fall, in a heated race likely to carry national implications. Let’s be realistic. Should a Republican win in November, the victor will be a newcomer in what will probably be a deeply split House. No first-termer will be a phenom. Labrador has the better chance to make an impact/Idaho Statesman. More here.
Question: Will the Statesman and Idaho Press-Tribune also endorse Labrador in the general election, if he beats Ward Tuesday?
Marine reservist Vaughn Ward and state Rep. Raul Labrador are in a statistical tie in the Republican primary race to represent western Idaho in Congress, says an Idaho Statesman/KBOI TV Channel 2 poll. The snapshot of the electorate, taken a week before the vote, shows Ward backed by 31 percent of voters and Labrador by 28 percent, putting the race within the plus or minus 5 percent margin for error. Undecideds topped each candidate with 37 percent. Harley Brown had 4 percent. Ward had big leads in fundraising and advertising, but Labrador has gained momentum in recent weeks as Ward suffered a series of setbacks culminating in the resignation of his campaign manager last week/Dan Popkey, Idaho Statesman. More here.
DFO: It appears Labrador has the momentum, erasing an 18-point deficit from the last poll of substance, and will benefit from cross-over voting. My guess? Labrador’s going to win.
Question: Which of these two candidates would have the best chance against Walt Minnick?
Raul Labrador just posted this on his Facebook page: “It’s not unusual to see posts of disappointment in Gov. Palin by those who do not call themselves conservative. They are everywhere. What IS of interest is when solidly conservative Bloggers write about a prevailing and expanding disappointment in her. Sarah Palin’s visit to Idaho on behalf of the beleaguered Vaughn Ward Congressional Campaign has prompted many comments by conservatives. We are disappointed with her coming into this Primary Race (as Ward clearly is the damaged candidate) but we urge conservatives to STOP the attacks on Gov. Palin.” More here.
Question: Do you think Labrador realizes that attacks on Sarah Palin by his side could backfire on his campaign?
Harley D. Brown doesn’t care if you’re offended. He’s a retired Navy man, and he thinks that anti-personnel mines would be a fine and effective deterrent to Mexicans who cross illegally onto United States soil. He said some mines, which might “castrate you or cause some arterial bleeding,” are “a splendid idea.” On the big issues facing our country, this is a candidate who knows where he stands. Abortion? “I’m down on abortion like God Almighty is down on sin.” Iran? “That guy in Iran, he’s over there threatening the whole Middle East with those nuclear weapons. I believe in wiping them out with a preemptive nuclear strike.” Medicare? “That is completely government socialism,” he said. “And I would attack it”/Michael Ames, Boise Weekly. More here.
Question: Any of you tempted to vote for Harley Brown in the GOPrimary for 1st Congressional District, as a means of protesting the nature of the race between the top 2 candidates?
As most of you know, Republican Vaughn Ward referred to Puerto Rico as another “country” in his debate with Raul Labrador in Post Falls earlier this week. You can see for yourself exactly what the two men said re: this issue by watching this YouTube. Then, if you haven’t voted in yesterday’s poll re: this question, you still have time to do so.