Posts tagged: Greg Smith
Pollster Greg Smith responds to criticism first posted at HucksOnline by Minnick spokesman John Foster: “It’s too bad that John Foster, whom I admire greatly, has chosen to take issue with the results we’ve produced over the years. As he and anyone else with even a scant knowledge of political polling knows, a poll is simply a “snapshot” of attitudes at the time of the research, and is NOT a prediction by any means. Just like consumer attitudes, voter attitudes do in fact change and adapt due to a number of variables. Further, if one bothers to look at the entire report that was produced in 2006 discussing the aforementioned results, you’ll see that I fully indicated that (1) I felt Sali would be in trouble as November approached (for which I received a great deal of grief from Sali and other Republicans), and (2) I also felt that Otter would in fact surge in the remaining days/weeks”/Dustin Hurst, Idaho Reporter. More here. (AP Photo: Matt Cilley)
RE: John Foster: Greg Smith polls are worthless/HucksOnline
Wednesday’s poll may not necessarily be an indicator of Minnick’s true standing with voters, however. One month before Minnick ousted Republican Bill Sali from the seat in 2008, Smith’s polling among 200 likely voters in the district found that Sali enjoyed a 51-39 lead over his challenger. Minnick went on to defeat Sali 51-49 on election night. In 2006, Smith found Democrat Jerry Brady ahead of Republican Butch Otter by 5 percent in the gubernatorial race. Otter defeated Brady at the polls 52-44. The poll results drew the ire of Minnick spokesman John Foster, who showed no confidence in the work of Smith and his team. “Usually when Greg Smith promotes one of his rigged polls, he at least tries to make it look real; this one is just a joke,” Foster told IdahoReporter.com. “He is notorious for being inaccurate”/Dustin Hurst, Idaho Reporter. More here.
Question: Do you think the Greg Smith poll that showed Raul Labrador leading Congressman Walt Minnick 36 percent to 24 percent is accurate?
John Foster, spokesman for Walt Minnick (to HucksOnline): It’s long past the time for people in Idaho media to continue giving Greg Smith ink and bandwidth. Set aside for a moment his years of inaccurate predictions. On their own, his most recent two polls should provide a clear answer to anyone who is uncertain as to his accuracy. Before the primary he had Walt at 50 percent among GOP primary voters, and now claims that, in a matter of weeks, Walt has fallen to half that support among ALL voters? That is a massive drop in a very short amount of time, with no explanation. In other words, not statistically possible. (I know, Hucks readers — you were told there would be no math.) Greg’s methods deviate from widely recognized standards, his polls are available to the highest bidder (I know because he has pressured me for a year to hire him for Walt’s campaign) and of dubious value to political watchers and media organizations. People should trust their instincts and ignore him once and for all.
Some of you have expressed concerns re: the accuracy of Greg Smith polls. As someone who tries to provide all the important news re: significant Idaho politics, I hesitate somewhat to post info from a story now posted on the Idaho Statesman Web site re: a Smith poll that shows Repub Raul Labrador ahead of Walt Minnick 36% to 24%, with 30% undecided. Minnick has made in-roads into the moderate Republican camp with his conservative votes. I doubt that only 24 percent of Idaho would vote for him at this point. But you be the judge. Here’s the story.
Question: Do you think the Greg Smith poll is accurate?
Out-of-Stater Tater (re: poll that shows Ward leading Labrador 2-to1): Take this poll with a healthy dose of salt, not just a grain. Greg Smith does this frequently during election years. He commissions a poll out of his own pocket, shops the results around, hoping media outlets will bite. The resulting news story generates publicity for “Greg Smith & Associates,” which he then uses to drum up some more business. Greg has to do this because he doesn’t get much repeat business. An example of why - you all remember Matt Salisbury? Nice guy. He had Greg do a poll for the ‘08 primary between himself and Bill Sali. Four days before the primary, Salisbury’s campaign staff was running to and fro telling everyone “We just got poll results that show us trailing Sali by only 3 points!” Salisbury lost by 20.
Question: How much stock do you put in political polls?
Eagle, Idaho pollster Greg Smith says he’s done a poll in the 1st Congressional District GOP primary race that finds 50 percent of voters undecided, just weeks before the May 25 primary election. Smith said his poll of 400 voters in the 1st CD showed 34 percent support Vaughn Ward in the GOP primary, 16 percent favor Raul Labrador, and 50 percent were “undecided/don’t know/refused/other.” Smith said the same poll showed, for the general election, incumbent Democratic Congressman Walt Minnick as the favored candidate for 50 percent of respondents, with just 20 percent choosing “the Republican candidate” instead/Betsy Russell, Eye On Boise. More here.
Question: What do the results of this poll say to you?