Eye On Olympia

Gov’s race: Gregoire still up (slightly) over Rossi…

Survey USA's latest Washington poll shows the governor's race "too close to call," with Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi 50 percent to 48 percent, with a remarkable 1 percent undecided.

The poll suggests that Gregoire is particularly strong with women (54 percent), voters earning less than $50k a year (54 percent) and voters over age 65 (also 54 percent). Rossi's stronger in Eastern Washington (54 percent) and slightly stronger (51 percent) with age 35-49 voters.

Political blogger Daryl, at Hominid Views tries to put the horse race in perspective, combining it with several other recent polls and noting that none has shown Rossi in the lead since February. He writes:

The take-home message is that (1) Gregoire has repeatedly held the lead in this race. It is highly unlikely that this has happened by chance (i.e. the lead is almost certainly real). (2) There has been very little movement in the polling numbers for Rossi or Gregroire over the last 1.5 years. (3) If the non-movement continues, Gregoire will almost certainly win a second term.

Rossi's campaign spokeswoman had a different take on it.

"Just as we have been saying all along, and poll after poll has confirmed, this race is statistically dead even,” said Jill Strait. “No one poll should be seen as being 100 percent accurate, but collectively these polls all show the race is extremely close and competitive."




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