“Initial claims for unemployment insurance appear to have peaked and monthly job losses are diminishing.”
That’s the word from economist Arun Raha, the state’s revenue forecaster.
The trough of the recession, however, will be lower than he and the state’s economic and revenue forecast council expected in March. And if plotted on a graph, he said, the recession will look more like a drawn-out U than a quick-recovery V.
That complicates things for the state, which now faces revenue $185 million lower than predicted in March for the 2007-2009 biennium, and $297 million less than expected for the 2009-2011 biennium.
The upshot: the June revenue forecast shows general-fund revenue down a combined $482 million from what was expected just a few months ago.
(Tech note: sorry, a glitch earlier cut off part of the end of this post. RR)