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Spin Control

Posts tagged: Initiative 1033

There’s a map for that: Spokane’s 1033 vote

Initiative 1033 got hammered in the city of Spokane, but did well outside it.

Click here to download a high-resolution JPG of this map.

Anti I-1033 forum Thursday a.m.

City and county elected officials will discuss the potential impact of I-1033 at a forum Thursday morning sponsored by Greater Spokane Inc. It starts at 7:30 a.m. at the Service Station, 9315 N. Nevada; tickets are $20.

On the agenda are Spokane Mayor Mary Verner, Spokane Valley Mayor Rich Munson, Airway Heights Mayor Matthew Pederson and all three county commissioners.

The impacts they predict will most likely be bad. There’s no pro I-1033 people on the program, although it’s almost certain that sponsor Tim Eyman will have some rejoinder afterwards.

Nonprofits recruiting against I-1033

Non-profit agencies that work on housing and children’s issues are putting out a call for volunteers to work against a state initiative to limit government spending.

Recent polls that show Initiative 1033 with a comfortable lead has groups concerned about a loss of grant funding for programs, said Mary Ann Murphy, executive director of Partners with Families and Children: Spokane, who forwarded the request for help with a phone bank:. “I did get alarmed that perhaps people didn’t know all the implications of how this will play out.”

The sponsor of the initiative questioned whether the agencies should be campaigning for or against any ballot measure, but doubted they’d have much impact.

“If we thought it was going to be really effective, we’d be more upset,” Tim Eyman said.

I-1033: counting sigs

Don’t know if this is going to generate any controversy or not, but a funny thing happened on the way to Initiative 1033’s ballot placement Wednesday.

Initiative entrepeneur and chief sponsor Tim Eyman sent out an embargoed e-mail saying that the petitions turned in were “the cleanest ever” and had a rejection rate of less than 10 percent.

About 30 minutes later, the Secretary of State’s office announced that I-1033 was cleared for the ballot with “an unusually high” validation rate. But it was about 12 percent. No superlatives reported.

In truth, all of this is an estimate, because the Secretary of State’s office does not check every signature on every petition unless it absolutely has to. The requirement right now is 241,153 valid signatures from individual registered voters (that is, you gotta be registered, and if you sign more than once, it don’t count.)

If a group turns in 241,152, or less, the office doesn’t count, period.

If it turns 241,154 or a few thousand more, it starts counting, and keeping track of rejections. When it passes the number in the cushion — the difference between the total needed and the total submitted — it stops counting and the initiative doesn’t make it.

If a group turns in about 20 percent or more than the total needed, the office does a random sample, determines how many of the random sample were valid, then applies a formula to determine whether the total number is likely to be above the threshhold.

It’s a complicated formula, and those interested in math can read the formula used and applied to I-1033 here. Warning: for math-o-phobes, this could result in nightmares where you square a root, carry the one, move a decimal and have your integer lopped off

I-1033 qualifies for ballot

Initiative 1033 will be on the November ballot.

The Secretary of State’s office announced this afternoon that it’s way over the minimum for signatures required to make the grade.

It turned in so many signatures that the office does a random sample check. In the check, they had a rejection rate of about 12 percent, which is unusually low, the state elections office noted.

If approved by voters, the initiative would limit the growth in state, county and city government revenues based on a formula that’s adjusted for inflation and population growth, unless voters approve increases. You can read more about it here.

In other signature gathering news, supporters of Referendum 71, which would repeal the state’s latest domestic partnership law, said over the weekend they had about 75,000 signatures. They’ll need a minimum of 120,000 by July 25, which could be a real scramble.

I-1033 signature count update

Tim Eyman and other promoters of Initiative 1033 turned in 315,444 signatures on their petitions last week, the Secretary of State’s office reported today.

That’s significantly more than the 241,153 needed (if they are valid signatures from registered state voters) to get the proposal on the ballot.

At least one Spin Control reader was skeptical of Eyman’s estimate last week of “more than 314,000” sigs. Turns out he was low-balling, ever so slightly.

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About this blog

Jim Camden is a veteran political reporter for The Spokesman-Review.

Jonathan Brunt is an enterprise reporter for The Spokesman-Review.

Kip Hill is a general assignments reporter for The Spokesman-Review.

Nick Deshais covers Spokane City Hall for The Spokesman-Review.

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