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Spin Control

Posts tagged: polling

Poll: ‘Cut spending’ beats ‘Raise taxes’

A new survey suggests Washington voters would rather the Legislature cut spending than raise taxes, the folks at Moore Information say.

Wow. Bet you didn't see that coming. (Next week, Moore will poll people on whether they'd rather have rain or sunshine tomorrow.)

As with most polls, it's not just the overall results that matter, but what questions were asked, and how strongly people feel about them. . .

To read the rest of this item, or to comment, continue inside the blog.

Cantwell has big lead in poll, fundraising

U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell's re-election campaign was crowing about two bits of good news for her:

Federal Election Commission reports filed this week showed she raised more than $1 million fo the third quarter of this campaign year. And a new poll by Rasmussen Reports shows her with a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Mike Baumgartner.

Rasmussen also has President Obama up by 11 points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, and Washington's gubernatorial race in a virtual dead heat, with Democrat Jay Inslee at 46 percent and Republican Rob McKenna at 45 percent. (Editor's note: Earlier versions of this post had the numbers for the governor's race reversed.)

A spokeswoman for the Baumgartner campaign says they expect to have a figure for third quarter contributions by Friday.

Poll: McKenna ahead of Inslee; Obama ahead of Perry, Romney

OLYMPIA — For those who are Jonesing for some campaign-style polling, a Seattle political consulting firm is trying to supply a fix.

It has a new poll of 500 voters that suggest if the election were held today,  Republican Rob McKenna would beat Democrat Jay Inslee for governor. And President Barack Obama would beat either of the two current GOP frontrunners, Rick Perry or Mitt Romney, for president in Washington state.

Two initiatives on this November's ballot would also pass, according to the Strategies 360 poll.

But there are some caveats and some details beneath the surface of the raw numbers, Kevin Ingham, the firm's vice president for polling, explained Monday morning in the big rollout of the numbers.

To read the rest of this item, click here to go inside the blog.

Poll: Half GOP primary voters think Obama not born in USA

A new poll of 400 likely Republican primary voters suggests President Barack Obama should cue up a Bruce Springsteen song as his campaign anthem. Only about one in four believes he was born in the USA.

The poll was designed to test the relative strength of various GOP presidential aspirants. Mike Huckabee was first, followed by Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. But as polls often do, the folks at PPP asked some other questions. Among them:
  

Do you think President Obama was born in the United States?

No said 51 percent

Yes said 28 percent

Not sure said 21 percent.

In other words, nearly three-fourths are either convinced he wasn't or aren't sure he was.

Link to the full poll is here.

Bragging rights go to Washington Poll

OLYMPIA — Remember all those polls in the U.S. Senate race that were all over the place in the last week of the election?

Democrat Patty Murray was up by 4. No, Republican Dino Rossi was up by 3. No, they’re tied.

Turns out the most accurate poll in the race, according to Matt Barreto of the Washington Poll was…

The Washington Poll.

Barreto compared 11 polls released within a week of the election in the Murray-Rossi race, which right now is separated by about 4.42 percentage points.

The WashPoll of Registered Voters, released Oct. 28, had Murray up 4 points.

Depending on the remaining ballots, YouGov might lay claim on the best call. It’s Oct. 30 poll of registered voters had Murray up 5 points, and her margin might grow because so many of the remaining ballots are from King County.

Other comparisons can be found inside the blog.


Poll roundup in the Senate race

Three polls of Washington’s U.S. Senate race released in the last 24 hours have different numbers, but actually conclude the same thing: The race is very close.

Rasmussen Research late Thursday had the race at 47 percent Dino Rossi, 46 percent Patty Murray. It’s a survey of 750 voters, has a margin of error of 4 percent. So in other words, it’s tied, although Rasmussen notes that Murray was up 49-46 in a similar poll last week.

Also on Thursday, SurveyUSA had the race in an actual tie at 47 all in a poll it did for KingTV.  It’s a survey of 678 voters, with a margin of 3.8 percent.

At noon today, the Washington Poll, conducted by the University of Washington, had two figures from two sets of 500 voter surveys. For all voters, they  have the race at 49 percent Murray 45 percent Rossi; among likely voters, they have it at 51 percent Murray, 45 percent Rossi. Their margin of error is 4.3 percent for each of the 500-person surveys.

More on the Washington Poll results, which asked about issues important to voters, later on Spin Control and Sunday morning in The Spokesman-Review.

WA Poll: Jobs top issue, state on wrong track

More voters think Washington is “seriously on on the wrong” track than going in the right direction, a new survey by University of Washington researchers says.

More than half approve of the job President Obama is doing, and slightly les — 51 percent — approve of Sen. Patty Murray’s job performance. But less than one in three give Congress good marks for the work its doing.

Less than half say they’re planning to vote to re-elect Murray in November, and two out of five would either vote for Dino Rossi or any Republican candidate runnign against her.

The Washington Poll, which was released today, has more voters giving Gov. Chris Gregoire  bad marks than good marks for her job performance. While her overall numbers are relatively close — 44 percent say they approve compared to 47 percent who say they disapprove — those who feel strongly about it are much more likely to say they disapprove. Nearly a third, 30 percent, say they strongly disapprove compared to 17 percent who say they strongly approve.

Gregoire’s numbers look good compared to the Legislature. Only about one in three approved of the job the Legislature is doing, while 43 percent disapproved.

Attorney General Rob McKenna fared better than Gregoire or the Lege, with 41 percent saying they approve of the job he’s doing and 23 percent disapproving. But more than a third (37 percent, say they have no opinion or have never heard of him; less than one in 10 had no opinion of Gregoire.

Democrats currently have a slight edge in upcoming legislative races, the poll suggests, but nearly one in five voters polled was undecided when asked if they planned to vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate for the Legislature this fall.

The poll flagged something that could help Republicans and pose a problem for Democrats in the legislative elections: 60 percent said they support a two-thirds majority vote for the Legislature to raise taxes. The state had such a law, enacted by voters, until this year when Democrats in the Legislature voted to suspend it.

More than half the voters surveyed said they would for an initiative to institute a state income tax on those making more than $200,000 and another initiative to end the state ownership of liquor stores. Both proposals are among ballot measuers in the signature-gathering phase.

Voters surveyed were about evenly split on the new taxes the Legislature approved to support the budget, on the  health care reform approved by Congress, and on McKenna’s decision to sue the federal government to block some aspects of that reform from taking effect.

There was strong support for repealing the state’s civil and criminal penalties for possession of marijuana, something the Legislature considered briefly but didn’t pass.

The poll showed increasing support for allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry, and allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the country and becoming citizens “but only if they meet certain requirements like working and paying back taxes over a period of time.

Want more poll results? Click here to see the full Washington Poll Issues and Opinions May 2010.

 

Good things to remember about polls

Sometimes, real truth is found in the funny pages. Or in this era, on Web sites devoted to comics.

Artist Jorge Cham at www.phdcomics.com hit the nail on the head about polling better than several sociology and journalism text books we’ve perused, and we’ll try to remember it as polls start coming fast and furious later this year.

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About this blog

Jim Camden is a veteran political reporter for The Spokesman-Review.


Jonathan Brunt is an enterprise reporter for The Spokesman-Review.


Kip Hill is a general assignments reporter for The Spokesman-Review.

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