If Powell Runs, We May All Benefit

Will he or won’t he?

Each morning Colin Powell goes to the computer and raps a few more words on his $6 million book. He only interrupts his literary labor to make a rare speech at $60,000 a pop.

After a lifetime on soldier’s pay, you can’t blame Powell for picking up a fast buck. Shucks, he might make as much as some relief pitchers.

But while he’s holed up in his McLean, Va., basement, tapping out his memoirs, the ex-four star general creates the biggest mystery - except for the O.J. verdict - in American life.

Forget Clinton, Gingrich, Dole and other pols scrambling for our attention. We’ve got ‘em pegged. But Colin Powell, who could reshape the political landscape, tantalizes with the riddle:

Will he run for the White House in ‘96?

Like gypsy tea-readers, pundits parse clues for Powell’s intentions.

“It would throw some fun in the game,” he teases a college audience.

“I’ve read the Constitution carefully, and you don’t have to belong to a political party to run for president.”

Then a Powell spokesman dumps cold water on the ‘96 scenario: “It’s not something he aspires to.”

So skeptics abound. Those who know Powell say he would not gladly take on the travel, press scrutiny and campaign hurly burly.

But sure, he’s worried about the country and might listen to a bugle call.

Sounds like Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.

I can’t pretend to read Powell’s ambivalent mind. It’s a cinch he won’t enter the ‘96 primaries. He’s not out hustling for campaign gadzillions. Clearly he’s neither a conservative Republican nor a Democrat who’d challenge a sitting president.

But I suspect there’s a 50-50 chance Powell could become a third-party candidate who’d dramatically shake up 1996 politics.

Beyond conjecture, though, I’ll get to one reason why Powell should run for president now.

First, the timing of his fame and the political tides break perfectly to lure him into the arena.

His book will presumably hit stores around Christmas. Then obligatory TV interviews will flare his Horatio Alger story - and maybe his political opinions - into the national eye. Powell’s perishable celebrityhood will be at its crest.

He can watch the ‘96 primary scrimmages, ironically “front-loaded” to play into a Powell scenario. In a 44-day blur, by the March 26 California primary, Republicans will pick a candidate. Still time for a third party to gear up.

Whether the GOP winner is Bob Dole, Phil Gramm or Pete Wilson, all vibrations point to a party leaning hard right. That script - Republicans gung-ho for the Christian Coalition and damn-the-poor Newtonomics vs. a rudderless Clinton - could light Powell’s fire.

Summer of ‘96 might pair the two more powerful outsiders in American politics: Colin Powell and Ross Perot.

Is a Powell-Perot combination fantasy? Probably. Who knows about the chemistry? Would Ross, idolater of military heroes, subdue his ego for the ex-general? But mix Powell’s national respect with Perot’s organization, you’ve muscle to scare the hell out of the major parties.

Might even win.

Sure, third parties do poorly - 20 percent tops. The country’s mood, though, is restless, grouchy, cynical toward career politicians. Discontent toward Clinton can turn on Gingrich Republicans. Fractured main parties, TV demagoguery, frustrated term-limits - no wonder 57 percent tell pollsters they want a third party.

There’s a yearning for a transcendent leader. Sure, we know the raps against Powell: never ran for office, politics a mystery, done nothing but put together a winning army.

Shades of Ike in ‘52.

OK, maybe Colin Powell’s third-party run, even with Perot’s help, is moonshine. Here’s a one-word reason why Powell should get into the national game: Race.

Every omen says America’s racial animosities will worsen in the coming year. The war over affirmative action will split the major parties.

The House welfare debate, when those on the dole were called “alligators” and “wolves,” was a warmup.

Throw in black-white reactions toward the Simpson trial, arguments over crime, backlash against immigrants. Ugly times ahead.

Powell, the most respected black hero in America’s history, could be a healing force who transcends racial politics.

Sure, he can bank his book riches, wait for someone to make him a running-mate or secretary of state.

But I hope Powell will tack historian Stephen Ambrose’s words on his wall:

“When people look at Powell, he makes them proud to be Americans. If elected he could do more for race relations - young whites as well as young blacks - than anyone since Abraham Lincoln.”

Even if Colin Powell runs and loses, we all win.

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