Records In The Breaking Untouchable Marks Vulnerable; Just Ask Babe, Lou And Ty

They were believed to be “untouchable,” baseball records predicted to last a millennium.

Now they won’t even make it to the end of this one.

“I believe that all records are a lot more breakable than people think,” said author Bill James, one of the game’s foremost statistical analysts.

Move over Babe, Lou and Ty. Like sage Satchel Paige once said, “Don’t look back, someone might be gaining on you.”

It’s that way with some of baseball’s most revered standards. At least three players last year were on pace to break Roger Maris’ season home run record of 61. Given the dilution of pitching because of expansion, that record may be wiped out next season.

This season, one of the game’s greatest touchstones, Lou Gehrig’s consecutive-games-played streak of 2,130, is heading for a fall. Baltimore’s Cal Ripken Jr. isn’t far behind.

Gehrig’s record is almost certain to fall in about three months. In the past 21 years, we’ve also seen Pete Rose pass Ty Cobb’s record for career hits and Hank Aaron break Babe Ruth’s mark for career home runs.

The sun rises. Records fall.

“I think it’s foolish to describe any record as unbeatable,” James said. “One of the things I do is find quotes from people who say that a certain record will never be broken.

“I found someone who said that Ty Cobb’s stolen base record (of 892) was unbreakable. That was 1962, Lou Brock’s rookie year. People in 1919 were saying that Babe Ruth’s 29 home runs would stand forever. A dozen people broke it over the next five years.”

James also said it’s a mistake to limit history in determining records “because you can’t predict how the game can change.”

Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of Elias Sports Bureau, thinks the game changed so dramatically after the “dead-ball era” - which ended in 1919 - that that’s generally where record-keeping should begin.

“Then, once you make that distinction, you have to figure where Cy Young’s 511 victories falls,” Hirdt said.

Young played from 1890 to 1911, during the dead-ball era, but no pitcher of any era, then or now, is remotely close.

“That’s probably beyond reach the way the game is now,” Hirdt said. Top” compiled by the Seattle Times. It’s based on input from James and Hirdt, along with weight given to how much the record is beyond the next best player.

“I never thought of Gehrig’s record in the same sense as other records,” Hirdt said. “It’s not a record of skill, but a record of will.”

No. 1: Joltin’ Joe’s streak

Record: Longest hitting streak, 56 games by Joe DiMaggio in 1941. No. 2: 44 by Willie Keeler in 1897 and Pete Rose in 1978. Difference: 21.4 percent.

James, who deals in computer projections, said he once took Wade Boggs’ best season, .368 in 1985, and projected it out 1,000 seasons to see if he could match a 56-game streak. He never did.

“So then I thought about running 1,000 seasons of all the greatest hitters in history - Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, Joe Jackson, Willie Keeler - just to see if anyone could do it,” James said. “No one ever did.”

George Brett, who had a modest 30-game streak in 1980, said, “It was scary. People were asking me about DiMaggio, and I was still a month away from coming close.”

Hirdt, however, calls it a “quirky record … I hesitate to call it as significant as legend has it. I mean no disrespect, but people who lived through that have a reverence for it that I can’t appreciate.”

Hirdt said DiMaggio hit .408 during the streak. He said he’d rather “have someone be more productive, hit .430 and miss a game or two.”

No. 2: Ryan’s express

Record: Most career strikeouts, 5,714 by Nolan Ryan, 1966-1993. No. 2: 4,136 by Steve Carlton, 1965-88. Difference: 27.6 percent.

“I remember when Ryan and (Steve) Carlton went back and forth with the record in 1983,” Brett said. “Then Carlton dropped out and Ryan continued for another decade, until 1993.”

Ryan had to average 212 strikeouts a season for 27 seasons.James, while he admires those numbers, added, “If God can create one fluke, he can create another one.”

No. 3: Cy Young’s 511

Record: Most career pitching victories, 511 by Cy Young, 1890-1911. No. 2: 416 by Walter Johnson, 1907-1927. Difference: 18.6 percent.

Young, who played when pitchers worked 50 games and threw more than 400 innings, averaged 23 wins. He won 20 or more games 15 times and 30 or more five times.

“If a pitcher plays 20 years and averages 20 wins a season, which is rarer and rarer to do, he’d still be 111 wins short,” Hirdt said.

Warren Spahn is the only pitcher since 1950 to rank among the top eight. Spahn, who had 13 20-win seasons, is still 148 wins behind.”The mark of a great pitcher is 300 victories. Young has more than 500,” Brett said. “I’ll say that one will never be broken.”

No. 4: Gibson’s crowning season

Record: Lowest season ERA since dead-ball era, 1.12 by Bob Gibson in 1968. No. 2: Since 1915, 1.53 by Dwight Gooden in 1985. Difference: 36.6 percent.

This is not the major-league record. It’s actually fourth behind 1.00 by Boston’s Dutch Leonard in 1914, 1.04 by Chicago’s Three Finger Brown in 1906 and 1.09 by Washington’s Walter Johnson in 1913.

But it is the lowest for a pitcher with more than 300 innings, and far and away the lowest since 1919. Twenty-seven pitchers in history have season ERAs under 1.50. Except Gibson, all were before 1919.

Only two pitchers have come close - Dwight Gooden, 1.53 in 1985; and Greg Maddux, 1.56 last season. In 34 starts, Gibson had 28 complete games, 13 shutouts, and was never taken out during an inning or lifted for a pinch hitter.

No. 5: Hack’s monster year

Record: Most RBIs in a season, 190, by Hack Wilson in 1930. No. 2: 184 by Lou Gehrig in 1931. Difference: 3.2 percent.

This may be one of the game’s flukiest great records. Hack Wilson had a decent 12-year major-league career, but he’s not one of the game’s greats. Yet the 5-foot-6 Wilson’s season was monstrous.

It was a season in which he not only had to perform routinely in the clutch, but his teammates had to constantly set him up. Four of his teammates had a .331 batting average or better.

“I don’t think anyone will get that many opportunities, as much as they intentionally walk people,” Brett said. “Or if Ken Griffey’s up, they’ll bring in a left-hander to face him.”

No. 6: Incredible Carlton

Record: Highest percentage of team’s season wins, 45.8 percent, by Steve Carlton, who won 27 of Philadelphia Phillies’ 59 in 1972. No. 2: 45.5 by Ed Walsh, who won 40 games for the Chicago Cubs in 1908. Difference: 0.7 percent.

“That’s incredible,” Hirdt said.

Carlton’s feat was remarkable because his team was so unremarkable. No regular had a batting average better than .281 or more than 68 RBIs. The Phillies averaged only 3.2 runs per game.

Carlton needed a low ERA, 1.97, and had to finish what he started - 30 complete games in 41 starts.

No. 7: Better than average

Record: Highest career batting average, .367 by Ty Cobb, 1905-1928. No. 2: .358 by Rogers Hornsby, 1922-1937. Difference: 2.5 percent.

Cobb is nearly 10 percentage points better than anyone who has played the game. It is an extraordinary achievement of longevity, spanning both eras, hitting .400 before and after 1919.

Cobb batted .300 or better 23 seasons, and .400 or better three times. But Hirdt points out that Wade Boggs once carried an average in the mid-.340s, though it since has dropped to .335.

No. 8: Rose is a Rose

Record: Most career hits, 4,256, by Pete Rose from 1963-1986. No. 2: 4,191 by Ty Cobb. Difference: 1.5 percent.

Rose didn’t break Cobb’s record for 66 years. He averaged 177 hits and had a record 10 200-hit seasons.

“He played four more seasons than I did, and he has how many more hits than I do? (1,102),” Brett said. “I don’t see anyone catching him.”

No. 9: Johnny who?

Record: Back-to-back no-hitters by Johnny Vander Meer on June 11 and 15, 1938.

Like Hack Wilson’s, it’s a fluky kind of record. Of all the great pitchers in history who might have a chance at two straight no-nos, Vander Meer wouldn’t be on many lists.

He pitched 13 seasons, lost more than he won (119-121), never won more than 18 games and never threw another no-hitter.

“Throwing consecutive no-hitters. That’ll never be broken,” said Tommy John, who pitched for 26 seasons without one.

No. 10: Sewell’s sweet swing

Record: Hardest to strike out, every 62.6 career at-bats, Joe Sewell, 114 in 7,132 at-bats, 1920-1933. No. 2: Every 44.9 at-bats by Lloyd Waner, 173 in 7,772 at-bats, 1927-1945. Difference: 28.3 percent.

Sewell had an astonishingly low 114 strikeouts in 7,132 career at-bats from 1920-1933.

“The game would have to change to break that, and I think it would be better off if it did,” James said. “They used thicker handled bats then, like bottle bats. The emphasis was putting wood on the ball, getting out of the box fast and hitting .300.”

ILLUSTRATION: 2 Photos (1 color)