Asiago, Machuka Rate No. 1 They Won This Race Last Year, Face Tough Task Of Repeating

Odds are defending champion Josphat Machuka and Delillah Asiago won’t win Bloomsday on Sunday - but Don Kardong wouldn’t bet against them.

Kardong, who puts together the elite fields for the 12-kilometer (7.47-mile) race, good-naturedly handicaps the race. He’s just as good-natured about his success rate.

He figures he’s picked both winners only once, and probably hasn’t predicated the male winner half the time.

But now Kardong’s odds are a Bloomsday tradition.

Kardong, a former Olympic marathoner, only wavered with the women’s field, finally picking Asiago over Nadia Prasad, last year’s runner-up.

“I changed because Nadia Prasad hasn’t really raced since she won the Los Angeles Marathon (March 5),” Kardong said. “There’s two ways to read that. First, this is a big race coming back, she may be ready. But … Asiago has run some really big races this year, so it’s hard not to pick her.”

Asiago, 23, from Kenya, won the Gasparilla Distance Classic in Tampa, Fla., in February, the Azalea Trail Run in Mobile, Ala., in March and the Crescent City Classic in New Orleans last month. She also finished second, ahead of 1994 Bloomsday winner Olga Appell, in the Carlsbad 5,000 last month.

Appell, not entered this year, set the course record of 38 minutes, 45 seconds last year. She finished :20 ahead of Prasad, a 27-year-old native of France.

Kardong put Jane Omoro, a 20-year old Kenyan, third, the same place she finished last year, :32 behind Prasad.

Spokane marathoner Kim Jones and 28-year old Californian Jody Hawkins are fourth.

“The top three have it pretty well together,” Kardong said. For Jones to break into the top three “would be a shock to her as well.”

So it’s 2-1 on Asiago, despite being a Bloomsday rookie, with Prasad at 4-1, Omoro 5-1 and Jones and Hawkins 8-1.

“I still feel course knowledge is a real advantage,” Kardong said, “but I look at the races Delillah has won, and the competition has been great, so I’ve got to pick her first.”

Kardong put Machuka, a 19-year-old Kenyan who won in 33:59, 4 seconds off the course record, at 2-1 with Armando Quintanilla, a 27-year old Mexican who was 3 seconds behind Machuka, at 3-1 in the men’s race.

“Quintanilla won both the 5,000 and 10,000 in the Pan American games - that was a good double,” Kardong said. “But, I have a hard time picking against somebody as good as Machuka coming back unless he’s clearly out of shape - and he’s definitely in shape. His track record is similar to Delillah’s.”

Slipping in at 4-1 is late entry Simon Karori, a 35-year-old Kenyan, with 1992 champ and course-record holder Yobes Ondieki, a 34-year-old Kenyan, at 5-1. Ondieki would be Kardong’s sleeper pick.

“I have no information if (Ondieki) is in shape or not,” Kardong said. “That’s exactly the way he came in and won this race with a course record. He’s always mysterious about what kind of shape he’s in, especially this time of year.”

Last year, five runners reached the top of Doomsday Hill, about 5 1/2 miles into the race, together and stayed together until the final stretch. Thomas Osano was third, only 10 seconds behind Machuka and 2 ahead of Jon Brown. Only Simon Chemoiywo faded out of the pack, finishing 30 seconds behind the winner.

“The race is either won on the Hill or coming down Broadway (a 1-mile stretch starting just after the 6-mile marker),” Kardong said. “A lot of times, if not visably, it’s won on Doomsday Hill; someone has made a move that allows them to win later on. The guy that gets to the top looking the best is your best bet.”