Geologist Predicting Earthquake Claims Chances Good For Quake Near Seattle In Next Few Days

Does Mother Earth have a doozy of a Mother’s Day present in store for the Puget Sound region?

How about an earthquake?

Self-styled seismic savant Jim Berkland, a retired San Jose geologist, says there’s a 60 percent chance an earthquake between magnitude 3.5 and 6.0 will strike within 140 miles of Seattle sometime between today and May 20.

Berkland claims to have predicted every one of 20 earthquakes of 5.0 or greater to strike the San Francisco Bay Area since 1972. He predicted the 1994 Northridge quake in Southern California and the 5.0 Puget Sound quake Jan. 28.

The basis for his latest prediction is today’s full moon and the fact the moon will be closer to the earth than it’s been all year.

“Those are two major tide raising forces in the same day,” Berkland said Friday. “We’re not talking about an 8.5 or 9. It’ll more likely be in the 4.0 to 5.0 range. Somebody spread the rumor I was calling for a 7.5. That’s not right.”

Whatever. It’s all bunk, established earthquake scientists say.

“There have been several studies that have shown no perceptible correlation between the phases of the moon and tides, and earthquakes,” said Tom Yelin of the U.S. Geological Survey in Seattle.

“We don’t think there is any validity that his methods are useful.”

Yelin wouldn’t say there won’t be an earthquake within the magnitude, area and time prescribed by Berkland.

But, “He’s opened a window so wide in space, time and magnitude, there’s a fair chance to hit. I don’t know what the odds are that he’ll be right, but I’ll bet they’re not less than one in 10,” Yelin said.

A 140-mile radius around Seattle would reach from near the Canadian border to just south of Portland, out into the middle of the Pacific Ocean and east of Yakima.

Even if Berkland’s prediction comes true, Yelin said, “What’s the value of it? If you believe him, will it change anything you do in your life? You don’t even have to do any preparation for a 3.5. But if you think it’s going to be closer to a 6.0, then you do.

“We don’t have any indication that a 6.0 will hit in the next 10 days any more than we did for the last 10 days. We’ve seen nothing remarkable. Of course, in general you probably couldn’t tell. It’s always been hindsight where we could see foreshocks. There’s been nothing that has caught our eye.”

Berkland, who will be in Spokane this weekend speaking about earthquakes at a conference on mind, spirit and health, insists he can predict earthquakes.

“High science says you can’t predict them,” Berkland said. “That’s hogwash.”

If an earthquake doesn’t occur in the area during the next week, Berkland said the odds rise to 70 percent that a quake will strike June 11-18.

Beginning today, Puget Sound tides will be at their highest since the January quake, Berkland said. Coupled with large low tides, the full moon and the proximity of the moon to the earth, the combination of forces makes for prime earthquake conditions, Berkland said.

Geologic activity isn’t the only clue, Berkland added.

“Animals and people can sense them,” Berkland said. “If you happen to see rats running around the streets of Seattle, watch out.”