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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Is Powell The Leader Nation Craves?

John Jacobs Scripps-Mcclatchy

American politics has come to a virtual standstill, holding its collective breath as retired Gen. Colin Powell decides what to do.

If Powell runs for president - he has said he will announce his decision by Thanksgiving, if not before - every poll, every other candidate’s favorability rating, every assumption any politico has yet made about the 1996 elections goes out the window.

If Powell decides that this is not the year or that he can, as he once put it in another context, serve his country in other ways, his absence from the race will have diminished every other candidate, from Sen. Bob Dole to President Clinton. Fair or not, accurate or not, none rise to the stature the media has bestowed upon Powell; none exude the leadership possibilities his candidacy suggests.

Only two things can be said with certainty. First, Powell has mulled this decision as none other, calling dozens of Reagan administration friends and colleagues, political consultants, pollsters and advisers. His wife is said to adamantly oppose his running, deeply and appropriately concerned, as she put it, that “some nut” would find a way to kill him. Last Saturday’s assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is only likely to intensify her fears.

Second, if Powell does run next year, he will almost certainly do it as a Republican. Without question, Clinton will be renominated by the Democratic Party. And Powell seems too cautious and too much the realist to think that an independent candidacy would bring him victory.

The Danger, of course, is that Powell will run and find that he cannot possibly match the sky-high expectations that have been set for him. There is nothing like running for president. Every word and every action is weighed and analyzed, every joke and gesture subjected to rigorous interpretation. And every aspect of one’s past is picked over, as reporters seek scandal or clues to future behavior and political enemies look for failure, weak spots or other ammunition with which to destroy a candidacy.

Career pols - the Clintons, Doles and Gramms - have lived with this knowledge ever since that first seed of presidential ambition burst upon their consciousness. But they have had years to hone their message, find their voice, establish a style and comfort level of campaigning. They have developed a thick skin. They have learned, of necessity, to suffer fools gladly.

For Powell, there is no time for spring training, no time to develop the protections to absorb the blows or the patience to endure those with lesser skills. Given the expectations he faces, he must emerge almost immediately as a brilliant candidate with a perfect-pitch message. There can be no major gaffes or slip-ups that rivals can use to gain traction. And they will all be gunning for him.

And how is he to approach the burning, divisive issues of the day? Powell’s modus operandi until now has been to drop powerful clues, without laying out specifics, that position him as sweet reason incarnate, that anchor him in that “sensible” centrist slot for which Clinton has been so mightily striving of late.

Powell is pro-abortion rights but anti-abortion. He’s pro-affirmative action but anti-quota. He thinks the Christian right is saying important things about values and the American family but that it’s too extreme.

He thinks House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” has useful provisions but is a little harsh. Are these long-held views, arrived at legitimately and after real deliberation? Or are they tailored for mass consumption, designed to give least offense? If it’s the latter, Powell’s troubles are only beginning. This is not a moment for cautious bromides or “split-the-difference” philosophies.

And yet, his candidacy offers so much potential, so much promise. Is he the leader Americans seem to crave? Could he, as the nation’s first black president, begin to heal the racial divide that has torn this nation apart? Could he, by force of personality and moral authority, elevate the discussion and realign the political parties?

If, for example, Powell brought large numbers of black voters back into the Republican Party - which they deserted beginning with the New Deal and especially after the Republicans walked away from civil rights in the early 1960s - he could create a more honest political reckoning. It’s the dirty secret they don’t like to talk about, but Republicans have done so well at the national level since the late 1960s in large part because they have successfully painted the Democrats as the party of blacks and thus played on white fears and resentments.

Take blacks out of the Democratic Party and there could be little of the Democratic Party left. Or, alternatively, take blacks out of the Democratic Party and, free of racial backlash, it could fashion a more class-based economic message that working- and middle-class voters of all races could find attractive.

Nearly four years ago, a plane stood on the tarmac ready to whisk then-New York Gov. Mario Cuomo to New Hampshire to beat the deadline and file his papers for that state’s presidential primary. The plane never took off because Cuomo ultimately could not bring himself to get on board.

It’s not at all clear that Cuomo had what it takes to win his party’s nomination, let alone the White House, just as it’s not clear Powell has what it takes either. If Powell’s plane takes off, however, he could irrevocably change American politics, possibly for the better.

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