Hiv Infects 1 Out Of 92 Young Men Rate Still Rising Among U.S. Youth

One of every 92 young American men - those ages 27 to 39 - may be battling the AIDS virus, according to the most precise estimates yet of the epidemic’s toll.

The sobering numbers show minorities are especially hard hit, with one of every 33 young black men estimated to be infected in 1993, according to the report in this week’s journal Science. The 1993 data is the latest available.

If the trend continues, “the threat of AIDS may become a rite of passage” for young people, said study author Philip Rosenberg of the National Cancer Institute. “That’s a very disturbing future.”

The government already has warned that AIDS is threatening more and more young adults. In January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that AIDS in 1993 became the No. 1 killer of people ages 25 to 44.

If AIDS was killing that many, how many others were alive with HIV, posing the potential for the disease’s continued spread? And because HIV typically causes no symptoms for 10 years, just how young were these people when they caught it?

Rosenberg used CDC data on reported AIDS cases and fatalities. He then used a process called “backcalculation,” statistics on AIDS mortality, population data and information on the disease’s incubation period to estimate the number of HIV infections as of Jan. 1, 1993.

“It is important to recognize that backcalculated estimates are based on modeling rather than direct data and are very uncertain,” he acknowledged in explaining his findings.

Nevertheless, Rosenberg’s study is the most precise look to date at HIV prevalence among young Americans.

People ages 18 to 25 experienced a rapid rise in HIV infections between 1986 and 1992, during the same time when older Americans’ risk of HIV infection leveled off, Rosenberg found.

Those youthful infections meant people ages 27 to 39 were the most likely to be alive with HIV in January 1993, he reported. He calculated that one of every 139 young white men was living with HIV then, as was one in 33 young black men and one in 60 Hispanics.

Women were over four times less likely to be infected. One of every 1,667 white women ages 27 to 39 had HIV in January 1993, as did one in 98 black women and one in 222 Hispanics, Rosenberg calculated.

The numbers probably have not changed much since 1993, primarily because it takes so long for HIV to kill an individual, said CDC AIDS expert John Ward.

And the numbers aren’t a surprise - AIDS’ death toll indicates fairly accurately how widespread HIV infection is, said Cornelius Baker of the National Association of People With AIDS.

But the new study puts HIV in better terms to make the average American understand its real and growing threat, Baker said.

“I don’t think most people really get it, that (infection) is a potential for them,” Baker said. “We have to be clear: Right now … if you get HIV in your 20s, you will die by around 40 years old.”

The CDC will unveil next week new measures to try to get that message to young Americans.

The government recently announced that AIDS appeared to be leveling off, with 40,000 new infections every year balanced by about 40,000 annual deaths.

Rosenberg said his study counters that optimism - because the apparent plateau disguises the increased risk to younger Americans. Only young white men have seen a drop in new infections in recent years, while the risk has increased for young minorities and women.

“When you look at each successive generation born up to 1969, we see wave after wave of AIDS cases,” he explained. “It’s that momentum which is important evidence for the continuing spread” of HIV.

The CDC has counted 501,310 AIDS cases since 1981 and 311,381 deaths. As of 1993, between 630,000 and 897,000 Americans were alive with HIV, Rosenberg said.