Bosnian, Croat Gains May Threaten Peace Negotiations

With Bosnian forces poised for further gains, the biggest threat to peace negotiations comes not from the Bosnian Serbs but from government troops who have claimed 20 percent of the country in the past two weeks.

The Bosnian troops, helped by Croatian army soldiers and Bosnian Croats, have dramatically altered the region’s balance of power. They have exploited confusion in Bosnian Serb ranks brought about by the sustained NATO bombings of Bosnian Serb communications lines and ammunitions depots.

The Bosnian government forces are now closing in on the vital Bosnian Serb stronghold of Banja Luka, although Bosnian and Croatian leaders indicated Tuesday that their offensive may be halted.

Forces loyal to the Muslim-led government now control about 50 percent of Bosnian territory, compared with 30 percent before the current offensive started, said U.N. spokesman Alexander Ivanko in Zagreb.

“Bosnian Serb territory is shrinking by the hour,” said Ivanko.

Despite pleas for restraint Tuesday from the United States, Britain and the U.N. Security Council, Bosnian and Bosnian Croat troops continued to threaten Banja Luka.

The Bosnian troops have so far seized mainly towns and villages likely to have been handed over to the government under a peace plan now being considered. But seizure of Banja Luka would give the government more territory than had been planned and deprive the Bosnian Serbs of the city they envisioned as their future capital.

There are widespread fears that a Bosnian government attack on Banja Luka might spur Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic to send his powerful armed forces into the fray to rescue the Bosnian Serbs.

That would lead to a grave escalation of the Balkan conflict, especially since Russian political and military leaders have said they would give advanced weapons to the Serbs if Milosevic intervenes.