Demand For Pcs Expected To Accelerate In 1996 Windows 95 Operating System Contributes To Strong Sales

Surging worldwide demand for personal computers will continue to grow in 1996, according to a sunny-skies forecast presented by the market research firm International Data Corp.

IDC analysts meeting in San Jose Tuesday said shipments of PCs will jump this year by 21.5 percent to 57.1 million units and then by 17.1 percent to 66.9 million in 1996.

Sales in the United States will jump 20.9 percent to 22.6 million this year, and by 15.4 percent to 26.1 million in 1996.

Fueling the buying binge is Microsoft Corp.’s Windows 95 operating system, which got a boost from an unprecedented $200 million marketing campaign; lower prices for key components such as microprocessors; and big leaps in design that are making today’s PC systems much more powerful than predecessors of only a year or two ago.

For example, the Framingham, Mass.-based IDC said, 1996’s typical $2,500 PC system will include a 17-inch monitor, quad-speed CD-ROM drive, 16 megabytes of random-access memory, a 100 megahertz Pentium-class processor, and a 2,000-megabyte hard drive. That’s substantially better than today’s similarly priced system, likely to feature a 15-inch monitor, double-speed CD-ROM drive, 4 megabytes of RAM, a 66-megahertz 486-class processor and 500-megabyte hard drive.

And by the year 2000, IDC predicts $2,500 will buy a monitor that displays high-definition television images, an 8-speed CD-ROM drive, 128 megabytes of RAM, a 400-megahertz processor and an 8,000-megabyte hard drive.

IDC analysts said the only dark cloud on the horizon - other than the possibility of an unforeseen economic downturn - may be the industry’s inability to run manufacturing facilities fast enough. Shortages of memory chips and monitors could put a brake on growth.

The number of U.S. households owning a personal computer, according to IDC, will grow from 33 percent in 1993 to 54 percent in the year 2000. Households using PCs to access on-line services will jump from 2 percent to 24 percent in the same period.

Companies most likely to capture bigger pieces of the market-share pie - according to IDC include Acer, whose U.S. subsidiary is based in San Jose; Austin, Texas-based Dell Computer Corp.; and Palo Alto’s Hewlett-Packard Co., which entered the consumer PC market in May. AST Research Inc. in Irvine, Calif., AT&T’s former NCR subsidiary, IBM, NEC Corp. and Toshiba Corp. are predicted to fall behind in the sales race.

And - no surprise - Microsoft wants to be the biggest winner of them all, said David Card, IDC’s software analyst.

Microsoft’s long-range plan, Card said, is collecting $100 a year from every business user of a PC, and $150 from every home user, for a combination of operating system software updates and programs such as word processors and entertainment titles.

“They’re nowhere near that yet, but that’s the goal,” Card said.