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The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Women Who Skipped Voting In ‘94 Elections Ready To Back Clinton

Thomas B. Edsall Washington Post

Women who voted in the 1992 presidential election but failed to cast ballots in 1994 are now prepared to back President Clinton and Democratic congressional candidates by strong margins, according to a poll for Emily’s List, an organization that provides financial and strategic support to Democratic women running for public office.

The survey, conducted by Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and Celinda Lake, shows that women overall are much more Democratic and pro-Clinton than men.

Women favored Clinton over Senate Majority Leader Robert J. Dole, R-Kan., by 19 percentage points, and are more inclined to vote for Democratic congressional candidates by 13 points. In contrast, men favored Clinton by 6 points, and are more inclined to favor GOP congressional candidates by a 6-point margin.

While providing evidence of overall Democratic support among women, the survey also shows Democratic weaknesses among such key groups of white women as married mothers and working women with blue-collar or working class jobs, both of whom trust the GOP as much or more than the Democratic Party on economic issues.

The Republican’s strongest sources of support among women are with white Southern and evangelical voters.

The study, the first of a series to be released every six weeks through the November election, was conducted March 20 to 24. A total of 1,089 voters were surveyed, 308 men and 781 women, with an extra sampling of 1994 “drop-off” women.

One of the goals of Emily’s List is to boost turnout among women who did not vote in 1994. They are a group that tends to be more downscale in education and economic status, and traditionally less likely to vote.

Greenberg said the pro-Democratic findings of the survey include the probability that “the normal presidential year surge (in voting) should produce a significantly greater Democratic vote because those who stayed away in 1994 are so Democratic.” These voters back Clinton over Dole by a 33-point margin, and, by a 20-point margin, say they intend to vote for Democratic congressional candidates instead of Republicans.

Another group of women that has become increasingly Democratic, Greenberg said, is retirees, who favor Clinton over Dole by a 64 to 31 margin. Single women favor Clinton over Dole by 63 to 34 percent, and by 19 percentage points they favor the Democratic Party over the GOP. Catholic women, in turn, favor Clinton over Dole by 61 to 35 percent, and by 18 points favor the Democratic Party over the GOP.

Two key swing groups of women, those who live in suburbia and those with professional jobs, diverge in their loyalties. Both tend to be supportive of abortion rights and are inclined to give Clinton fairly strong support, but they are much more lukewarm to Democratic congressional candidates.

Clinton beats Dole by 18 points among both professional and suburban women, but professional women give a slight edge to Republican congressional candidates, and suburban women favor Democratic congressional candidates by a 4-point margin.

Among women in low wage occupations, Clinton has a relatively modest 52 to 45 percent lead over Dole. These voters are worried about the economy, and they do not have much faith in the Democratic Party to deal with it. They give the GOP an 8-point advantage when asked which party can better handle the economy, and a 14-point edge when asked which party is better equipped to provide economic security.