Saddam’s Grip Weaker And Cia Sees Ouster

The CIA has concluded that Saddam Hussein’s prospects for holding onto power another year are declining, but the assessment is not shared by two other agencies.

A key element of the CIA analysis appeared to be that talks between the Saddam regime and the United Nations to ease the international embargo on Iraq would fail. Negotiations on arranging emergency oil sales succeeded after the CIA report was compiled.

The agency said it sees no “immediate threats” to the Iraqi president but reported “change could come suddenly and violently, as it has throughout Iraq’s history.”

The CIA, the State Department and the Defense Intelligence Agency provided written responses on foreign policy last May to the Senate Intelligence Committee. The panel recently released the assessments.

All three agencies agreed that signs Saddam’s regime is weakening and disaffection are intensifying. But only the CIA suggested Saddam may not survive a year.