Deng Xiaoping, Ailing Figurehead, Turns 92 China Leader’s Longevity Helps Smooth Transition Prospects

He hasn’t been seen in public for nearly two years and is not known to have made a significant policy pronouncement in much longer than that. He doesn’t hold any official position and is said to be in such poor health that he is barely lucid.

As Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping marks his 92nd birthday today, his influence is waning in a China that functions smoothly without his hand on the helm. When rumors swept Beijing in July that he had died, the Hong Kong stock market didn’t blink; 18 months earlier it had plunged on similar hearsay.

“Deng has faded as an active political force,” said a Western diplomat in Beijing. “He has influence just by being alive. But he can’t do much to actually influence policy.”

That does not mean that the death of the man who symbolizes the extraordinary emergence of China as a world power over the last 18 years would be a non-event. Deng remains the ultimate source of authority, and the reforms he unleashed underpin every facet of life in China. His death could well precipitate unforeseen changes, internal struggles or even upheaval.

But the longer he remains alive without exerting day-to-day influence over national policy, the easier it becomes to predict what the postDeng era might look like. Indeed, some say it is already here.

“In some ways we’ve already entered another period,” said political analyst Wang Shan. “This second era will see a lot of change.”

How much change is debateable.

In the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacres, when the leadership was still in turmoil and the succession far from clear, speculation surrounding the eventuality of Deng’s death was usually accompanied by dire predictions of chaos. Ironically, though, by combining infirmity with longevity, Deng has outlived many of the most gloomy forecasts and may have increased the likelihood of a smooth transition, diplomats say.

A younger generation of leaders, dominated by Deng’s presumed heir, President Jiang Zemin, has been busy consolidating power and stamping its own identity on policies that Deng has been too sick to influence.

As these leaders convene for their annual August policy session, their agenda includes the tough questions China will have to answer soon if it is to sustain its remarkable economic growth without precipitating social upheaval.

High on the list is how to handle money-losing state enterprises. Shutting them down would instantly throw millions out of work. Another issue that could cause instability is the widening income gap between the wealthy coastal regions and the impoverished hinterland.

Under Jiang’s leadership, the government has already shifted its emphasis away from Deng’s faith in unchecked free markets toward interventionist measures designed to alleviate poverty and prop up financially troubled state-owned industries.

Post-Deng China is also likely to be more brashly nationalistic than the one that first put out the welcome mat for Western companies nearly two decades ago, analysts say.

Jiang, the only member of the civilian leadership with a military position, has been wooing army leaders to shore up his position in the event of a power struggle after Deng dies. His fingerprints are seen on the decision to adopt a more aggressive stand toward Taiwan elections earlier this year, even though that risked confrontation with the U.S.

No one believes Deng’s broader legacy of free-market reform and openness to the West is at risk. But some observers believe power struggles could erupt over ways of managing the final and most difficult hurdles of reform, between hardliners who want to proceed with caution and liberals who would like to reopen the question of political reform.