Don’t Pin All Your Hopes On Green Bay Dallas, Denver Most Likely To Compete In Super Bowl

Dallas vs. Denver in Super Bowl XXXI.

The Cheeseheads, bloated with brats and misguided expectations, go shivering into the winter bemoaning the Lombardi curse. The wheezing Buffalo Bills are taken off the respirator, and Bill Walsh reminds everyone he was only a consultant and not the head coach of the underachieving San Francisco 49ers - not that he shouldn’t have been.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles prove they were just your basic “thanks for showing up” wild-card fodder, and Pittsburgh gets the message - no one wants to see the Steelers lose a second consecutive Super Bowl.

The New England Patriots lose to the Denver Broncos for the 10th consecutive time, and when it comes time to show up for the big party, the Carolina Panthers turn into a rotten pumpkin.

“Looking at everything,” says Jerry Jones, owner of the Dallas Cowboys, “we have as good a shot as we have ever had to win this thing.”

Picture this “not suitable for minors” scene: Jones hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for a third consecutive year; Barry Switzer winning as many Super Bowls as Jimmy Johnson; and Michael Irvin driving away for an off-season of fun in the new car awarded to the Super Bowl’s most valuable player.

“Most people have us written off,” Jones said, “but watch out.”

Is there any one out there who can beat the Cowboys?

Green Bay Packers (13-3): Quarterback Brett Favre was two years away from being born the last time the Packers went to the Super Bowl. Favre has thrown an NFC-record 39 touchdown passes, the Packers have won 16 consecutive games at Lambeau Field and everyone but coach Mike Holmgren has taken a leap into the stands. But their pathetic running game makes them vulnerable, and do you really want wide receiver Andre Rison rewarded for being a malcontent?

Don’t fret: Favre’s immature tendency to force things still makes him a turnover waiting to happen. If the 49ers defeat the Eagles, San Francisco gets a return trip to Green Bay to avenge a midseason overtime loss.

Carolina Panthers (12-4): The Panthers went undefeated at home - playing in the same division as the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and St. Louis Rams helps. But they beat the 49ers twice - home and away - which makes them legitimate, and they have a veteran-loaded defense that allowed only 13 points in the second half this season at home. They also have a blooming superstar in Kerry Collins at quarterback.

But the Panthers tightened up Sunday and almost choked in a game against the Steelers’ junior varsity that meant everything to Carolina. If Dallas defeats Minnesota this week, the Cowboys go to Charlotte, N.C., and watch how uptight that makes the Panthers.

San Francisco 49ers (11-4): Quarterback Steve Young is healthy again, and unfortunately, he still remains the team’s best running back. The defense carried the day when Young was limping, but Carolina exposed the 49ers’ secondary, which is manned by players primed to get beaten deep.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Coach Ray Rhodes, the 49ers’ former defensive coordinator, and Ricky Watters, the 49ers’ last effective running back, will be motivated to upset San Francisco, but quarterback Ty Detmer failed to play well down the stretch and the Eagles had trouble edging the New York Jets two weeks ago. That will be a long depressing flight back to Philadelphia.

Minnesota Vikings (9-7): Coach Dennis Green is 0-3 in postseason play, and quarterback Brad Johnson has a new big-league contract and won’t have to impress anyone - which he won’t. A solid running game would cause problems for the Cowboys’ defense, but the Vikings are faking it with Leroy Hoard.

Denver Broncos (13-2): Wouldn’t most football fans like to see a gunslinger like John Elway shoot down the Cowboys in the Super Bowl and end the AFC’s 12-year losing streak?

Elway has the running back in Terrell Davis to keep the heat off of him, and for the first time in years, Elway doesn’t have to do it all by himself because of a speedy Denver defense. Keep an eye on wide receiver Anthony Miller in the playoffs - he packs big-play potential.

New England Patriots (11-5): The Patriots can pile up the points, but may lack the physical ability to play the kind of power football Bill Parcells made famous while coaching the New York Giants to the Super Bowl.

New England’s defense has been improving, but can quarterback Drew Bledsoe avoid the crucial mistake in the big game? No.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): The Steelers have played 16 regular-season games, and they now have a quarterback controversy: Mike Tomczak or Kordell Stewart. Seems simple enough - start Stewart, but then why did it take them 15 games to try that? More importantly, how is Jerome Bettis’ ankle? Without Bettis, the Steelers appear neutered.

Buffalo Bills (10-6): The Bills get Jacksonville in the Orchard Park, N.Y., freezer to open the playoffs, but how long can a limping Jim Kelly and a gimpy Thurman Thomas hang on? Bruce Smith has willed the Bills into the playoffs, but three losses in their last four games doesn’t inspire thoughts of a fifth Super Bowl.

Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Quarterback Jim Harbaugh is exciting, but Marshall Faulk may be the key to the Colts’ chances of hanging around.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7): The Jaguars wouldn’t have defeated woeful Atlanta had Morten Andersen not muffed a 30-yard chip shot Sunday, but Jacksonville has a Steve Young clone in Mark Brunell and a Bettis clone in Natrone Means.

Jacksonville vs. Dallas in Super Bowl XXXI? That might make Barry Switzer coach of the year.

“One of our goals, and arguably the most important goal, was to get in the playoffs with a healthy team. We have done that,” Jones said. “There is no doubt about it, to win it this time with all the adversity and challenges we have faced, would be particularly special.

“It’s a tough task, but it can’t be any more intense than what we have experienced almost each week,” said Jones in reflecting on the Cowboys’ 1-3 start.

Discounting Sunday’s throw-away effort against the Washington Redskins, the Cowboys went 9-2, responding week after week against big-time opponents who had the chance to deal them a death blow. At the very worst, Irvin’s drug suspension probably cost the Cowboys a first-round bye, but is that too much to overcome?

Dallas, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Buffalo have dominated Super Bowl Sunday for much of the last decade more than any other teams, and all will be playing on the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs. Only one team - the 1992 Bills - has played on the first weekend of the playoffs since the NFL expanded to three wild cards in 1990 and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Only three wild-card teams - the 1975 Cowboys, the 1980 Oakland Raiders and the 1985 Patriots - have moved on to play in the Super Bowl since 1970.

“Are people rooting against us?” Jones asked. “We recognize the fact that when a team wins … championships generally people get tired of it. They say it’s time for somebody else.”

But is it time for somebody else?

Graphic: ‘96 NFL playoffs