Nfl’s Old Guard Rises In Defense Of Its Supremacy

This may not sit well in the Carolinas - where the second-year expansion team is seen as having a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl - but the line for the NFL quarterfinals next weekend has the Panthers 3-1/2-point underdogs to Dallas.

So much for home field.

Three of the four home teams won wild-card games last weekend. However, the dominant trend was the re-emergence of the old guard - Dallas, San Francisco and Pittsburgh - as threats to make it to New Orleans.

Yes, Carolina and Jacksonville provide that expansion flavor, but it’s the big boys with the playoff experience who are beginning to assert themselves.

“They always talk about the soft, fair-weather California boys, but we took a step toward proving we could play in inclement weather,” said Gary Plummer of the 49ers, who play in Green Bay on Saturday. “We did it in a driving rain. Now let’s see if we can do it in a driving snow.”

A look at next weekend:

NFC

San Francisco (13-4) at Green Bay (13-3) (Saturday, 9:30 a.m., Fox): The Packers joined the NFL elite last season by beating the 49ers in San Francisco 27-17 at just this stage of the playoffs.

Then they squeaked by the 49ers 23-20 in overtime Oct. 14, a game San Francisco probably should have won. One of Green Bay’s touchdowns, a 59-yard Brett Favre-to-Don Beebe TD pass, should have been negated twice - replays showed the ball hit the ground before Beebe’s diving catch and also showed a 49er touching Beebe before he got up and ran in for the score.

The weather will be worse this time, but the 49ers will have Steve Young at quarterback rather than Elvis Grbac. Yes, his bruised ribs have him officially listed as “questionable,” but does anyone believe Young won’t play?

Had Young been there in October, the Niners probably would have been more adventurous deep in Packers’ territory with the score tied late in regulation. Instead, they settled for a field goal that the Packers matched before winning in overtime on Chris Jacke’s 51-yarder.

But the weather Saturday will be a lot more problematic than on Oct. 14; the Packers have won 24 of their last 25 at Lambeau and Brett Favre is 19-0 in cold-weather games.

Dallas (11-6) at Carolina (12-4) (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox): Did Dallas’ offense really come alive in the 40-15 demolition of Minnesota on Saturday or was the Vikings’ defense really that bad?

Probably a little of both. Emmitt Smith, with a week off to rest his sprained ankle, was quicker than he’s been all season.

“It was a long regular season for us. The coaches and the players were tired and drained,” says Barry Switzer. “Sometimes it does get boring. But the playoffs bring excitement. It brings everything up to another level.”

Will it do that for Carolina?

Both teams were carried most of the year by their defenses and Dallas hasn’t really seen much of the Panthers’ scheme - zone blitzes out of a 3-4 alignment. But this will be the first playoff game for Kerry Collins, the Panthers’ second-year quarterback, and other than tight end Wesley Walls, the Panthers at the skill positions don’t match up with Smith and Michael Irvin.

But Carolina has one favorable matchup: Dom Capers vs. Switzer.

That and the Panthers’ 8-0 mark at Ericsson Stadium could even things up.

AFC

Jacksonville (10-7) at Denver (13-3) (Saturday, 1 p.m., NBC): The upstarts against the favorites and the line reflects it - the Broncos are favored by nearly two touchdowns.

But the Jaguars have won six straight and if Tony Boselli can handle Bruce Smith, he can handle Alfred Williams. “We’re having fun,” says Boselli. “We’re not supposed to be here, so we’re just having fun.”

The Broncos haven’t played a game that’s meant anything since Dec. 1, when they beat Seattle and clinched home field throughout the AFC playoffs.

That’s the key - the Jaguars became the first team to win a playoff game at Rich Stadium, but winning at Mile High against the healthy Broncos is another matter. If Denver’s month of meaningless games hasn’t cost the Broncos their edge, the Jaguars will need more than a ricochet on a field goal to win there.

Pittsburgh (11-6) at New England (11-5) (Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NBC): The Steelers showed Sunday that they can get up for the playoffs. But like the Cowboys against the Vikings, was it a rebirth or was it the opposition?

Still, Pittsburgh’s edge in playoff experience could offset the home field and its question marks at quarterback - Mike Tomczak’s has a tendency to throw interceptions and Kordell Stewart is more a gimmick than a full-timer.

The coaching matchup may be the best of the weekend - Bill Parcells vs. Bill Cowher. That’s one area where New England has the experience - Parcells is 8-4 in playoffs and nearly everyone on his staff has at least one Super Bowl ring.

The last time they played was in the next-to-last game of last season, when the Steelers won in Pittsburgh 41-27 with two late touchdowns.

“They had over 400 yards of offense against us, and they’re going to feel they can move the ball,” Cowher says.