Economists Say Recession Unlikely

The nation’s economy will grow moderately this year, inflation will be restrained, and the unemployment rate will remain under 6 percent for the third straight year, top economists predict.

A survey of 47 economists by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, released Friday, was the latest assurance that the nation is not falling into recession despite signs of a slowing economy.

The consensus forecast sees 2.2 percent expansion both this year and next, compared to anticipated growth of just 1.6 percent in 1995.

Participants in the Blue Chip survey estimated the economy slowed to a 1.9 percent annual rate of growth during the final three months of 1995, down sharply from 3.2 percent of the previous three months. They forecast a 1.9 percent rate for the current January-March period.

Still, as measured by the gross domestic product the 1.9 percent growth rate would be much stronger than the 0.5 percent rate in the second quarter and 0.6 percent in the first.