Hot Commodities Which Summer Movies Are Worth Your Time?

Let’s begin this look at the coming summer movie season with a working thesis.

Which would be, quality is not necessarily measured by market value.

Now before you begin to think that you’ve mistakenly stumbled onto the business page, stop and consider the following question: Just because something brings in a sizable profit, does that mean it boasts inherent aesthetic worth?

The obvious answer: Of course not. For if that were so, then every ashtray that Jackie Onassis ever owned would belong in The Louvre.

As we turn to Hollywood, where big-budget flops are as common as Kennedy press clippings, we typically try to separate what is “good” from what is merely “profitable.” That, at least, is one standard for movie criticism.

Yet when we’re attempting to handicap the slate of summer movies - those Tinseltown creations that tend to tempt our libido more than our intellect - box-office potential seems to be a perfectly appropriate way to proceed.

So, what follows is a broker’s-eye view of what Hollywood will be offering us over the coming weeks (as always, the dates are purely tentative): Blue-chippers: money in the bank

With an opening week’s take of some $41 million, the Steven Spielberg-Michael Crichton-Jan De Bont effort “Twister” has set the summer’s market tone. These others could do even better.

“Mission: Impossible” (Wednesday) - The only trailers more exciting than those for “Twister” have been the FX-amplified (translation: special-effects-amplified) snapshots from this Tom Cruise action-thriller. If the plot can update the 1966-1973 television show’s sense of excitement the way that Andrew Davis’ remake of “The Fugitive” did, $150-million-plus gate receipts are a lock.

“The Hunchback of Notre Dame” (June 21) - Disney has made its reputation by taking classic stories and myths and revamping them, say, the way a Broadway producer would. The result is often light, fun and sometimes exciting pablum for the movie masses. That Disney might be able to do the same for this Victor Hugo tragedy - Quasimodo doing a timely two-step? - should surprise no one.

“Independence Day” (July 3) - Benefitting from a good opening date - the Wednesday before a looooong July 4 weekend - this FX-happy look at Americans banding together to battle alien invaders could be just the thing to fulfill a mainstream fantasy.

Taking a flyer: boom or bust

It’s become a Hollywood cliche that “Nobody knows anything,” which is another way of saying that there’s no sure thing (otherwise Spielberg, say, would never have directed “1941”). But there are some reasons to think that the following films could do anything from hit big to sink clear out of sight.

“Dragonheart” (May 31) - Dennis Quaid (Dennis Quaid?) portrays a knight who befriends a dragon and then enlists the creature to fight the good fight. Sean Connery provides the beast’s voice, but the real draw is the “Jurassic Park” FX that bring the creature alive.

“The Rock” (June 7) - Ed Harris and his crew of terrorists take over Alcatraz, threatening San Francisco in the process, and it’s up to former inmate Sean Connery and federal agent Nicolas Cage to foil him. This could be a new installment in the “Die Hard” or “Lethal Weapon” vein. It could also be “Hudson Hawk.”

“Cable Guy” (June 14) - Somewhere, sometime, Jim Carrey is bound to falter. This film, which casts the goofy guy as a cable-television installer who befriends - and then bedevils - Matthew Broderick, has a dark side that might prove off-putting to his many fans. Then again, Carrey’s career may not yet have even peaked.

“The Eraser” (June 21) - Vanessa Williams is in trouble, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is her weapons-toting champion. We’ve seen this story before, but the big guy does seem to have a way with action-thrillers - even those with weak plots (anybody remember “True Lies”).

“Striptease” (June 28) - Demi Moore brings her obvious charms, both of them, to this project based on the best-seller by Carl Hiaasen. Moore’s character sheds threads to make ends meet, which is what has attracted all the publicity so far. But the story involves a rumpled private eye (Armand Assante) and a corrupt politician (Burt Reynolds). So there actually may be a total movie here somewhere.

“The Nutty Professor” (June 28) - Now that he’s remaking Jerry Lewis movies, it’s clear that Eddie Murphy has seen the more original stages of his career come and go. The plot here involves a weight-disadvantaged (read fat) college science professor who develops a formula that transforms him into, well, Eddie Murphy. Still, with “The Mask”-type FX to depend upon, maybe Murphy can recapture the charming sense of comedy that seems to have been passed to Jim Carrey.

“Tin Cup” (Aug. 9) - It’s been awhile since “Dances With Wolves,” and he now has both “Robin Hood” and “Waterworld” to live down. But Kevin Costner does seem to live a charmed life. Here he reteams with “Bull Durham” director Ron Shelton to take on the professional golf tour, with Rene Russo as his love interest and Don Johnson as his rival.

Value stock: likely to pay off

Some films just don’t have blockbuster potential. If it happens, fine, but it likely won’t. Even so, there’s quality to be found and value to be had.

“Phenomenon” (July 3) - John Travolta plays a 37-year-old regular guy who mysteriously develops a brain that is one part Einstein and two parts Uri Geller. Also starring Robert Duvall and Kyra Sedgwick.

“A Time to Kill” (July 12) - Matt McConnaughey (“Dazed and Confused”) portrays the small-town Southern attorney who, along with a volunteer assistant (Sandra Bullock), attempts to defend a black man (Samuel L. Jackson) accused of murdering the white men who raped his daughter.

“Multiplicity” (July 12) - Michael Keaton (remember him?) stars as an overachiever who clones himself to get everything done. Problem is, like a “Calvin and Hobbes” plotline, what follows is multiple trouble. Harold Ramis (“Groundhog Day”) directed.

“Frighteners” (July 19) - Michael J. Fox, whose career has seen better times, tries again to be a leading man in this modern ghost story.

“Courage Under Fire” (Aug. 2) - Denzel Washington portrays an Army officer assigned to investigate the circumstances involving the posthumous awarding of the Medal of Honor to a helicopter pilot (Meg Ryan).

“Matilda” (Aug. 2) - Danny DeVito and Rhea Perlman star as the irascible parents of a young girl in this adaptation of the Road Dahl novel.

“Chain Reaction” (Aug. 16) - Keanu Reeves stars as a scientist (no giggling now) whose weapons research makes him most wanted by evil government agents. What helps here is the direction of Andrew Davis (“Under Siege,” “The Fugitive”).

“Last Man Standing” (Aug. 16) - Bruce Willis stars in an action-thriller suggested by Akira Kurosawa’s “Yojimbo.”

Treasury bills: plodding to a profit

Then there are those film that open every week, play for a while, and then head for the budget houses such as the Garland, Fox or Eastside.

“Spy Hard” (Wednesday) - Leslie Nielsen does for spy movies what he did for cops in the “Naked Gun” series.

“Eddie” (May 31) - Whoopi Goldberg is an NBA fan who gets a chance to coach and actually does a credible job.

“Moll Flanders” (June 7) - In one of this summer’s few costume dramas, Robin Wright stars as the title character - a prostitute who finds redemption - in this adaptation of the Daniel Defoe novel.

“Kingpin” (June 28) - Woody Harrelson, Bill Murray and Randy Quaid star in - a bowling movie? Let’s hope it’s funny.

“A Very Brady Sequel” (July 19) - This is self-explanatory.

“The Fan” (July 26) - Robert De Niro plays an obsessed fan. Sounds like typecasting. Anybody remember “The King of Comedy”?

“The Adventures of Pinocchio” (July 26) - Martin Landau stars as Gepetto in this live-action remake of the Carlo Collodi tale.

“Escape From L.A.” (Aug. 9) - Remember John Carpenter’s “Escape From New York”? No? Well, who could blame you. Somehow, though, in the years since that movie’s 1981 release, it has been elevated to classic status. Now, with Kurt Russell back as Snake Plissken, Carpenter is presenting us his new version. Can’t wait.

“The Spitfire Grill” (Aug. 23) - A little John Sayles drama making the art circuit about a young woman starting over in a small town.

Junk bonds: opt for the popcorn

Finally, we offer the should-have-gone-straight-to-video leftovers.

“The Phantom” (June 7) - Billy Zane stars as the title character, a cartoon hero who wears purple tights in the African jungle. Anybody remember “The Shadow”?

“Alaska” (Aug. 16) - Charlton Heston (remember him?) is directed in this action-adventure by his son, Fraser.

“The Stupids” (Aug. 30) - Tom Arnold is head of the dumbest family in America. But not as stupid as the bad guys they run into.

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: 4 color photos