Mideast Peace Process Rides On Israeli Election

If Prime Minister Shimon Peres loses the crucial Israeli election Wednesday, analysts may conclude he was shaken from office by his own artillery.

Israel’s shelling last month of a U.N. base in Qana, Lebanon, did more than kill at least 91 refugees. It may have destroyed the entire Mideast peace process by robbing Peres of the support of Israel’s Arab citizens, whose votes could decide the tightly contested race for prime minister.

“People were supporting Peres before the attack,” said Ahmed Qousai, 29, a waiter in a Nazareth hotel. “After the slaughter in Lebanon, our support for Peres has gone down a lot. People can’t forget so soon.”

The competition for Israel’s Jewish vote between Peres and his right-wing challenger, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to be a dead heat. So Israel’s Arabs, about 12 percent of the electorate, could hold the key.

Arab voters have been adamant supporters of the peace intiative pursued by Peres’ Labor Party, buoyed by the promise of a new era that would benefit their Palestinian cousins as well as reduce longstanding discrimination against the Arab citizens inside Israel itself. Polls conducted before the 17-day bombardment of Lebanon showed that up to 95 percent would back Peres.

In the days after the Qana killings, that support plummeted to less than 50 percent, though most of the defectors said they would rather not vote at all than cast their ballots for Netanyahu.

Slowly and ever so grudgingly, the backing for Peres among Arabs has been climbing again. But it remains unclear whether enough will vote to ensure Peres’ victory.

“When Yitzhak Rabin was murdered, I became like any Jewish Israeli. I said I have to vote for Peres,” said Shadi Baransi, 22, who works for an advertising company in Nazareth. “But after what happened in Qana, I said I won’t vote for Peres.”

Like so many Arab voters, however, Baransi experienced political whiplash. As the race entered its final weeks, he switched on his television to watch the campaign commercials and saw the faces of Netanyahu’s extreme right-wing allies, well-known hawks such as Ariel Sharon.

“This is no alternative,” Baransi said. “I have to vote Peres.”

In Nazareth, one of Israel’s largest Arab towns, the streets below the Basilica of the Annunciation are humming with campaign activity. Walls and windows are plastered with Arabic posters for the parties competing in the separate election Wednesday for parliament. Scores of cars crawling though downtown traffic fly competing flags, red for the leftist Hadash Party, green for the United Arab List.

Bumper stickers for Peres are a rare sight. Bumper stickers for Netanyahu are practically nonexistent.

But top Arab politicians, who only a month ago rallied their supporters to anti-government demonstrations, have in recent days begun endorsing the ruling Labor Party for fear that a Netanyahu victory would spell catastrophe for the peace process.

“We want to prevent an extremist candidate like Netanyahu from becoming prime minister of Israel,” said Abdul Wahab Darawshe, a member of parliament and central figure in the United Arab List. “This election is very important for the future of the Middle East. We will decide who will be prime minister and put the right-wing in opposition for another four years.”