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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

The Cost Of Doing Nothing Is More

Steven A. Smith Special To The San Francisco Examiner

Two years after the genocide and war that took the lives of more than a million people in Rwanda, the world faces the likelihood of a human catastrophe that will dwarf the events of 1994.

One million Hutu refugees have been crammed into camps near Goma, Zaire, cut off from all outside aid and at the mercy of members of the same Tutsi ethnic group who was victimized in 1994. The men among the refugees face immediate death by execution; starvation and cholera threaten the women and children.

Zaire is tottering on the edge of collapse. Bordering countries such as Angola and the Central African Republic are far from stable. Should a regional war erupt involving Zaire, Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda, the consequences would be the likely dissolution of Zaire and a descent into chaos for all of Central Africa.

The cost of inattention is beyond calculation. Millions of people would die and tens of millions would become refugees. Billions of dollars would be required to meet humanitarian needs, and world food reserves are critically low.

Are Americans prepared to accept food shortages so African refugees do not starve? The ensuing political chaos seriously would threaten U.S. strategic interests, which include vital mineral and oil reserves in Zaire and surrounding countries.

It is not too late to stop the escalation and resolve the cause of the conflict peacefully.

First, it must be made emphatically clear to the Rwandans that the consequences of allowing the slaughter of a million people would be severe and long-lasting. No government that sanctions genocide can be considered legitimate.

The underlying causes of the conflict are familiar ones: security, justice and land.

Arms shipments into Zaire have not been stopped despite international protests. Rwandans see seizure of the Kivu region of Zaire as an essential security guarantee. International sanctions should be placed on countries involved in arms shipments to the region.

The long-discussed African peacekeeping force is needed now, and the United States and other donor countries should act swiftly to provide the necessary logistics for its deployment.

The lack of international response to the genocide in 1994 and the slow progress of the international tribunal are a disgrace. The international community has an obligation under the genocide convention, of which the United States is a signatory, to support fully the work of the tribunal. Suspected perpetrators of genocide should be arrested and the international tribunal should be fully funded. This would fulfill our international and moral obligations as well as build needed trust with the government of Rwanda.

Land is key to resolution of the underlying causes of the conflict.

Central Africa is densely populated, and competition for land is intense. Poor agricultural management - but primarily political corruption and instability over the last 10 years - has made a once productive region subject to famine and serious environmental degradation.

Commitments of long-term development aid are needed so the countries of the great lakes region of Africa can be self-sufficient again and become net exporters of food.

Response to this crisis requires leadership and courage now. The effort requires a diplomatic heavyweight such as Jimmy Carter, with the full support of the world community, to make and implement decisions.

Peace is contagious, as is war. We must put out the fires that threaten to turn the dream of a new world democracy and freedom into an inferno.

But the United States need not and should not act alone. Many countries are willing to - and do - provide significant resources for international relief and security efforts. What is needed now is leadership.

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