With Numbers On His Side, Clinton Charting Bold Finish Gop Strongholds, Tight Races For Congress To Get Attention

Confident of an Election Day victory, President Clinton’s political advisers are crafting a homestretch strategy that puts more emphasis on traditionally GOP states and helping Democrats in tight congressional races.

Just how to divvy up Clinton’s travel time and advertising money is a subject of considerable debate among Clinton’s political team. Advisers hope to settle on a campaign endgame in weekend meetings during which they will review fresh polling and assess challenger Bob Dole’s post-debate strategy.

Clinton hands were buoyed by surveys showing viewers considered Clinton the winner in the final debate, and they were intrigued by Dole’s first post-debate advertising buys.

Clinton campaign tracking showed that Dole did not purchase TV time in battleground states New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. New York was never a Dole target, but not buying ads there supported accounts from GOP aides that New Jersey next door had been dropped from Dole’s electoral strategy.

Instead, the Republican campaign bought heavily in traditionally Republican-leaning states such as New Hampshire, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Virginia, Arizona, South Dakota and Montana, the Clinton campaign said.

Contesting Dole in those states would be one way to fend off a possible last-minute GOP surge and, if successful, position Clinton for a giant victory.

But top White House political aide Harold Ickes and others are more concerned about the prospect of low turnout among the Democrats’ core constituency. They are reluctant to see Clinton take too much time away from his core states to dally in GOP territory.

The extent to which Clinton directs his energies to Republican bastions depends on the stability of his poll numbers and the results of the internal discussions.

The president is said to be the biggest cheerleader for making a run at states like Indiana, Virginia, Florida and even Texas. Part of it is ego: He would love to stomp Dole on his own turf. Part of it is pragmatic: Clinton is currently far enough ahead in polls to have goals other than reaching 270 electoral votes.

Victories - or even narrow defeats - in enough Republican-leaning states could reshape conventional wisdom about a Republican electoral advantage because of the GOP traditions of Southern and Western states.

“There is the real prospect of legitimate Democratic gains … which will change the way we look at the electoral map in places like Texas and Florida and Virginia and North Carolina,” said Don Fowler, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Another factor that will shape Clinton’s strategy for the final weeks is the election of the next Congress.

The president wants Democratic control of Capitol Hill to help him achieve his legislative goals in a second term. And there is another reason to hope and work for a Democratic takeover: It would be easier to contain any investigations of his administration if Democrats chaired congressional committees.

Clinton has already raised millions of dollars for candidates and stumped for dozens of Democrats.

But more and more, aides expect congressional elections to be a higher priority when Clinton decides where to travel. The campaign is looking at congressional districts - including five tight House races in Texas - to see where a presidential visit might tip the scales.

Also, one more West Coast trip is likely to help congressional candidates in Oregon, Washington and California, where Dole has promised a fight, campaign aides said Friday.

Still, the bulk of Clinton’s time will be spent in electoral battlegrounds.

In the next week, he will visit battleground states such as New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Michigan, and also the typically Republican South: Alabama, Louisiana, Florida and, perhaps, Tennessee.