Clinton Sailing Along, Hoping For No Surprises Despite Lead, Aides Fret Over Campaign-Jolting Scenarios - And There Are Precedents

They’re riding high in the polls, drawing overflow crowds, and can dare to think about four more years. But all the president’s men and women are still haunted by nightmares.

Nightmare scenarios, anyway.

Body bags from Bosnia. Downed pilots in Iraq. A stock market crash. A lousy debate. Terrorism. Indictments.

What might keep President Clinton or his top aides awake at night? Visions of anything that could tip the political scales.

It’s a fear of the unknown, says Clinton spokeswoman Ann Lewis, anxiety about anything “that goes horribly wrong in an area that is not the president’s fault, but for which he is accountable.”

President Bush must have thought it was a bad dream when prosecutors indicted former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger four days before the 1992 election. Legal papers contradicted Bush’s claim that he never knew arms were traded for hostages.

Challenger Bill Clinton said the indictment proved that the incumbent “has not been telling the truth” about the Iran-Contra affair.

President Reagan had a fright during his 1984 reelection bid: Verbal stumbles in the first debate raised jarring questions about his fitness at age 73. Reagan recovered in the next debate against Democrat Walter Mondale, issuing a lighthearted pledge never “to exploit … my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Nightmares.

In 1976, President Ford blew a late burst of momentum when he insisted there was no Communist domination of Eastern Europe. Watergate was a guillotine over President Nixon’s head in 1972, but heads didn’t roll until after the election.

“You’ve just got to be ready for the October surprise, and take it for granted there will be one,” historian Stephen Ambrose said. “You just have to stay sober and stay alert so you can deal with them.”

Clinton is a proven survivor. He dodged draft-dodging accusations and rumors of womanizing in 1992, plus scores of Whitewater-related troubles at the White House.

“His Teflon coating is so thick … I can’t imagine anything he has to worry about,” said Marlin Fitzwater, press secretary for Bush and Reagan. “I can’t imagine any surprise worse than what he’s already faced.”

Still, presidential advisers and outside observers say there are many nightmare scenarios:

Foreign policy crisis: With more than 15,000 U.S. troops in Bosnia and Saddam Hussein agitating in Iraq, the president can never rest easily. “There are always foreign policy contingencies that can screw you up,” said Suzanne Garment of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank in Washington.

Sour economy: Clinton is riding mostly positive economic numbers. Still, one senior White House official said the scariest thing he can imagine is a stock market plunge. Fitzwater said the prospect of major layoffs kept him up at night in 1992.

Debate debacles: President Carter looked silly in 1980 when he quoted his daughter, then 12, on nuclear arms control. Clinton, an artful television performer, could still slip up against Bob Dole. That is why White House negotiators are pushing for a compact debate schedule. If the president messes up, they want a quick return to the spotlight so he can recover.

Health: Clinton, 50, is by all accounts a healthy man, but a sudden presidential illness is always unsettling. Bush’s health became an election-year issue when he vomited on Japanese Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa. “You get the flu and they make it into a federal case,” Bush groused.

Terrorism: Clinton found his voice as mourner-in-chief after the Oklahoma City bombing. He deftly responded to the TWA 800 downing and the Olympic bombing. But the spilling of American blood in October could make him look weak.

Personal scandals: Rumors and accusations about Clinton’s personal life hounded his 1992 campaign, and could crop up in 1996. Mary Matalin, a Republican consultant who worked on Bush’s 1992 campaign, regretfully predicted that Clinton has nothing to worry about. “I don’t think any scandal would stick to this guy because the ethical standards are so low for him,” she said.

Indictments: The White House does not expect new Whitewater indictments this election season, certainly not against the president or first lady. “I would be very surprised if serious people with their own credibility at stake would go so far in a campaign season,” Lewis said.

Fitzwater said that’s exactly how he felt four years ago - until the Weinberger indictment jumped out of nowhere. “It was so overtly political nobody thought it would happen,” he said.

Garment, who specializes in political scandals, said the nightmare may be just beginning: Kenneth Starr, the independent counsel leading the probe, could connect the Clintons to Whitewater wrong-doings after the Nov. 5 election, creating “a pretty miserable second term.”

“Winning the election,” she said, “is not always the end of it.”