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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Diplomats Press For Negotiation In Crumbling Zaire Hope To Revive Peace Talks Before Country Falls To Rebels

Lynne Duke Washington Post

Diplomats are trying to convince Zairian rebel leader Laurent Kabila that this war-torn country can only be stabilized if he uses his strategic advantage to press a negotiated settlement rather than bring Kinshasa to its knees.

Although Kabila’s forces now control about two-thirds of Zaire and appear on the verge of success in their six-month-old campaign to oust President Mobutu Sese Seko, several strategic problems within the rebel alliance could create an 11th-hour slowdown in Kabila’s advance and allow time for peace efforts, diplomats say.

Leverage to bring about talks also may be gained by foreign powers’ mounting suspicions about the rebels’ alleged mistreatment of Rwandan refugees marooned in the east, including accusations that refugees have been massacred.

Kabila, a longtime foe of Mobutu, is a largely unknown quantity, and his intentions remain unclear. But because he appears ever more likely to prevail militarily here and emerge as leader of this mineral-rich nation that is Africa’s third largest, he is under intense pressure from U.S., European, African and U.N. leaders to show himself to be “pragmatic,” as one African diplomat put it.

Mobutu’s skeletal government continued its militaristic bluster Friday, announcing plans to send troops into the city of Kikwit, the rebels’ next apparent target, even as Kabila vowed Kikwit’s fall “will be very, very swift.” But diplomats view Mobutu’s position as so weak that his eventual capitulation is a foregone conclusion.

Zaire’s autocratic ruler for nearly 32 years, Mobutu suffers from prostate cancer and has grown more ill in recent days, diplomats say. His demise as Zaire’s leader is predicted to happen in one of several ways: through death, through talks or at the point of Kabila’s gun.

It is the gun that diplomats say they fear most, for it could unleash deep enmity and violence here that could derail any hope for bringing democracy to Zaire and could spread instability deeper into a region already feeling the effects of Zaire’s war.

The message being put to Kabila is that both he and Zaire will have an easier time later if he agrees to play ball now and forgo a full military conquest.

Negotiations being pushed by South Africa and the United Nations aim to secure peace and establish an interim government to preside over a transition to elections. A former Belgian colony, Zaire has not had free elections since independence in 1960. Mobutu seized power in 1965 and ruled Zaire with an iron fist until he loosened his grip somewhat in 1990 by promising democratic reforms that have not materialized.

Some diplomats fear Zaire’s fractured history will repeat itself if Kabila’s forces are not reined in now through a negotiated settlement.

“It’s much easier to get from negotiations to elections than it is to get from a total Kabila victory to elections,” said one Western diplomat, who said that a Zaire under Kabila’s rule could be hamstrung in its foreign relations if he doesn’t pursue reform. “We will hitch aid to (the rebels) toward movement to elections. As far as I’m concerned, it’s not over until we’ve had elections. Kabila is an interim phase.”

Peace talks are tied in knots over Mobutu and Kabila’s inability to agree on a site, let alone the huge gulf that separates their agendas. Already humiliated by Kabila’s successes, Mobutu wants to hold on as president during a transitional phase; Kabila wants Mobutu’s immediate resignation and has pledged to press his military campaign until the president is out.

Diplomats are racing against time. The Zairian army and residents of Kinshasa are so jittery with expectation and fear that the slightest incident could cause an explosion in this combustible capital of nearly 5 million people.

Always fragile, the political fabric of the Mobutu era is unraveling under the pressure of war. Heavily medicated and largely bedridden in recent days, Mobutu is insulated from all but a handful of relatives and close political cronies, diplomats say. He has not appeared in public in more than a week.

Kinshasa has become a free-for-all of fear and self-interest, with perhaps the only brake on chaos being the hope held by many ordinary citizens that Kabila would better their lives.