Manufacturing Trade Group Says Economic Boom To Last High Productivity, Low Inflation Set Stage For Continued Growth

The “best economic performance since the 1960s” is giving no indication that it will soon end, a manufacturing trade group says.

“We are witnessing the most amazing economic performance … due to the increased competitive and technological vigor of the private sector,” said President Jerry Jasinowski of the National Association of Manufacturers.

“The NAM anticipates ongoing growth, fueled by high productivity and a low inflation rate, for the foreseeable future,” he told reporters in releasing the organization’s economic forecast last week.

Although a temporary rebound in consumer spending will help boost economic growth from a 2.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter to almost 3 percent in the third, the economy will settle back to a modest pace, the forecast said.

“We can expect sustainable noninflationary growth of 2.5 to 3 percent annually,” Jasinowski said. At the same time, the inflation rate should remain under 3 percent annually and the unemployment rate below 5 percent.

The biggest threat to the economy, he said, is high consumer debt that “could jeopardize purchasing patterns and, in turn, cause a downturn.” But he said the problem is manageable because increased household wealth will permit debt repayment.

Jasinowski said higher interest rates also could slow growth, and urged the Federal Reserve to resist hiking rates.