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El Nino Could Affect Price Of Produce

Phil Lempert Chicago Tribune

It’s probably no surprise to learn that what we’ll pay for produce this winter depends to a large extent on the weather. But there’s an added element of uncertainty: El Nino.

Most fresh vegetables come from California, Arizona, Texas and Mexico - places most likely to be affected by the additional rain and cooler weather El Nino can bring.

“If Mexico is affected, that could wreak havoc with warm-season crops such as squash, eggplants, peppers and cucumbers,” says Gary Lucier, an agricultural economist with the Economic Research Service division of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

One food that could be most affected, Lucier says, is leafy green vegetables. The United States is one of the world’s biggest lettuce producers. The biggest producers of leafy greens are California and Arizona.

Lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower have already had some large “price spikes” from Hurricane Nora’s effect on California in September, Lucier says. Reduced supplies and volatile prices for leafy green vegetables are likely to continue into early January.

Increased carrot acreage this fall, due to continued strong demand and the opening of a new fresh-cut carrot operation in California, should result in abundant supply and lower prices.

Although the potato crop this year was about 8 percent smaller than last year’s “binbuster” crop, Lucier says, it’s still pretty large. Though prices will probably go up in the next month or two, the increases likely will be no more than a few cents per pound.

There’s good news in citrus as well, says Susan Pollack, an agricultural economist with the Economic Research Service. This has been a record year for orange and grapefruit juices, and we should see lower prices through March.