Grammy Predictions Not Always Winners

Don’t clear a space on the bookshelf for those statuettes.

Mariah Carey learned that lesson at last year’s Grammy Awards. Widely predicted to be a big winner - yes, we were guilty, too - Carey went home empty-handed to stick pins in her Alanis Morissette doll.

Celine Dion may be in the same position this year. Her bombastic ballads are just the type conservative Grammy voters traditionally go for.

But voters may be ornery (tasteful?) enough to say no. It could be a fun night.

Here’s some handicapping of the top Grammy races:

Record of the year: A Morissette victory would annoy Grammarians everywhere. Tracy Chapman, Eric Clapton and the Smashing Pumpkins are all deserving. “Change the World” is a superlative record that brings together artists the Grammys love, so it gets the narrow nod.

Album of the year: Beck was a daring nominee and actually has a real chance for an upset because, except for the Smashing Pumpkins, the other nominees are better-known for their singles. But the Pumpkins have a potent combination of critical and public acclaim that won’t be denied.

Song of the year: Here’s where Dion - or rather, songwriter Diane Warren - won’t be denied. “Because You Loved Me” is an easy winner.

Best new artist: We have a hunch rock ‘n’ roll fans won’t be able to decide between No Doubt, Garbage and Jewel - giving the award to teenage country darling LeAnn Rimes. She’s propped up the struggling country market almost by herself in recent months.

Female pop vocal performance: Colvin’s a quality nominee, but “Get Out of This House” is probably the least-heard song in this category. Dion is the choice.

Male pop vocal performance: “Key West Intermezzo (I Saw You First),” despite the pretentious title, is fine work from John Mellencamp. And Tony Rich deserves some recognition. But Clapton is the winner here.

Best pop performance by a duo or group with vocal: Yes, it’s creepy. But if the Beatles don’t win this award for “Free As a Bird,” it will be the upset of the night.

Best female rock vocal performance: We love Bonnie Raitt, mind you, but not everything she does deserves a Grammy nomination. Bonham’s “Mother Mother” is the best vocal performance, if the category is taken seriously, but Chapman will win.

Best male rock vocal performance: If a half-whisper, half-mumble is your idea of a fine rock vocal performance, Springsteen is your man. Beck is the deserving choice.

Best R&B song: Since he has three of the five nominees in this songwriter’s category, it’s not going out on a limb to predict Babyface will win. But for which song? Take your pick.

Best spoken word or non-musical album: Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton will show up to pick up her award? Or should she just send Chelsea, who would probably much rather be there?