Early Reactions Clearly Overdrawn

Once upon a time, defenders of the status quo were called conservatives. Now that “conservative” Republicans have been calling the tune in governmental reform for several years, we could use a new description for those who resisted the reformers with anguished predictions of disaster.

Would “reactionary liberal” do the trick?

These thoughts come to mind as evidence rolls in that controversial changes of the last few years have not led to the disasters the reactionaries had predicted.

Consider, for instance, changes made in criminal justice and in welfare.

Cities such as New York have achieved spectacular reductions in violent crime with tactics that civil libertarians had bemoaned as cruel and excessive. Police cracked down hard on minor “quality of life” offenses such as aggressive panhandling, thereby sending the message that urban disorder of all kinds no longer is tolerated.

Also, an assessment of the three-strikes law in Washington state found little evidence of a disastrous explosion in the prison population, as critics had predicted. According to a report by the Washington Institute for Policy Studies, just 83 criminals have been sent to prison for life after three serious felony convictions. A significant drop in crimes covered by the law raises a hope that it’s having a deterrent effect or at least is taking some one-man crime waves off the street. Police report that some criminals have left the state rather than risk a three-strikes sentence and that others ask frequently whether their records place them at risk of a life behind bars.

Predictions of disaster from welfare reform have been even more melodramatic than were the predictions about criminal justice reforms. And yet, in states where the reforms are taking effect, no disaster has materialized. Instead, people are trading the dole for jobs. In Wisconsin, caseloads have fallen 25 percent in the past year and are 60 percent below caseloads of a decade ago. Other states report similar results. In Florida, where time limits on welfare have booted people off the rolls, again, there’s no disaster. Instead, there are stories about people saying, gratefully, that it has prodded them to find jobs.

It’s way too early to pronounce reforms this complex a total success. But it would be reasonable to suspect that they are an improvement. There’s a lesson here: It’s healthy to reform - in spite of the status quo’s reactionary defenders. It also is wise to monitor results and to fine-tune as we go, for issues such as crime and poverty will always be with us.

, DataTimes The following fields overflowed: CREDIT = John Webster/For the editorial board