Arrow-right Camera
The Spokesman-Review Newspaper
Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Some Last-Minute Bracket Advice

Michelle Kaufman Miami Herald

Sixty-four teams are alive this morning.

By Sunday night, there will be 16.

Unlike the NBA, which just recently concluded the 1996 playoffs, college basketball doesn’t mess around. None of this seven-game series stuff.

One loss, you’re outta here, baaaaaaaaby.

On March 29, the four survivors will show up at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis and on the 31st, the national championship game will be played in front of 47,000 crazed fans and a very excited Dick Vitale.

If that isn’t reason enough to ditch the NBA for the rest of March and become a college hoops junkie, consider the prospect of 19 days without Dennis Rodman.

So what if you can’t locate Murray State, Coppin State, Butler or Valparaiso on a map?

You don’t have to.

You just have to locate them on your NCAA bracket, and decide if they’re good enough to move on to the next round. (Hint: No.)

Here are some more helpful hints for those last-minute fans who waited until this morning to enter the office pool:

1. Do NOT, I repeat, do NOT pick Fairfield, Jackson State, Montana or Southwest Texas State to advance to the second round. I don’t care if you’re a Jackson State grad and Trent Pulliam is your nephew. The time to jump off the Tigers bandwagon is now. If you hear a rumor that the entire Kansas roster has food poisoning, pick the Jayhawks anyway. Sixteenth seeds are 0-48 in the tournament, and only once since 1990 has a 1 vs. 16 game been decided by fewer than 11 points. That was last year, when Western Carolina missed a three-pointer at the buzzer and lost, 73-71, to Purdue.

2. Steer clear of 15th-seeded Murray (we’re in Kentucky) State, Navy, Coppin (we’re in Maryland) State, and Charleston Southern (not to be confused with College of Charleston, which is actually a very good team). The No. 15 seed has lost 46 of 48 games to the No. 2 seed. The only exceptions were 1991, when Richmond stunned Syracuse, 73-69; and 1993, when Santa Clara beat Arizona, 64-61.

3. When in doubt, pick whoever is playing against the Big Ten. Yes, yes, Minnesota is for real this year, but recent history says the league’s luck runs out right about this time. It has been three years since a Big Ten school made the Sweet 16, and the league is an abysmal 3-11 in the past two tournaments.

4. Pick whatever team Tubby Smith is coaching. (Hint: Georgia.) Smith’s teams have made the Sweet 16 the past three years, including the last two with Tulsa. Even though the Bulldogs lost all five starters from last season and had no players named to the all-SEC first or second teams, they managed a 24-8 record. They’ve had trouble with Kentucky, but who hasn’t?

5. Pick teams with good guards. It’s no secret guard play is critical in the tournament, so you’re in pretty good hands with Kansas, South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville and Boston College.

6. Remember that sometimes sports writers are smarter than NCAA officials. College of Charleston is seeded 12th and Maryland fifth, even though Charleston (28-2) is ranked 17th in the latest AP poll while Maryland is ranked 22nd. The NCAA gave Cal the No. 5 seed and Princeton No. 12 even though, in the AP voting, Cal is 43rd and Princeton is 27th.

7. If you’re feeling gutsy, pick (13) Southern Alabama over (4) Arizona in the Southeast. Arizona has been bounced in the first round three of the past five years. Southern Alabama is coached by journeyman Bill Musselman, who last Danced 25 years ago with the 1972 Minnesota team. In between, he has coached in the NBA and CBA and become a guru of defense. His team holds opponents to 38.2-percent shooting and 15.3 points below their average.

8. Pick Kansas, Minnesota, North Carolina or Kentucky to win it all. Sure, it’s boring to pick the No. 1 seed, but it’s also safe. The past seven years, a top seed has won all but one national title.

9. If you don’t want to pick one of the top four seeds, pick UCLA. The Bruins have won 15 of 17 since their 48-point loss to Stanford, and they’d like nothing more than to go back to the RCA Dome, where they were embarrassed by Princeton in the first round last year.

10. Or, if you prefer, you can flip a coin.