Pulpit Overblown As Favorite

My inability to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby is well-documented, but for this record of futility I offer an explanation. The Derby is run like no other race, and it is regularly won by someone other than the top horse.

The oversized fields ensure that some horses will be hurt by traffic problems and that racing luck will play a role in the outcome. Moreover, the frequent presence of many speed horses often creates a too-fast pace that sets up the Derby for a horse coming from far, far behind - the type that rarely wins any other race in America.

But Saturday’s 123rd running of the Derby is going to be a pleasant change from the norm. The field of 13 is the smallest since 1979. There are no crazed speed horses who are likely to create a bizarre pace scenario.

In short, this is a normal horse race, the best horse should win it, and I should have no excuse for failing to pick the winner.

What does makes this Derby tough is the depth of quality in the field. There are only five hopeless cases in the field (three of them trained, interestingly enough, by the most successful Derby trainers, Nick Zito and Wayne Lukas). But the other eight are all closely matched, as my speed figures indicate. Seven horses earned a figure between 105 and 110 in their latest start, and the eighth, Concerto, won so easily that he could surely have run in this range.

The factor that could make this competitive Derby bettable is the expected enthusiasm of Kentuckians for their favorite son, Pulpit. He is listed as the 2-1 favorite in the morning line, and that status is not warranted. He lost with no excuse to Captain Bodgit in the Florida Derby and he has not run a race to suggest that he is any better than his rivals.

While Pulpit will be overbet, some other legitimate contenders will be underbet. Free House, the Santa Anita Derby winner, and Concerto, a colt who has won six of his last seven, have attracted little attention here, and they could win, although their abilities at 1-1/4 miles are suspect. Crypto Star and Phantom on Tour ran 1-2 in a fast Arkansas Derby, and both are formidable horses.

But after watching all of the prep races of all these 3-year-olds, I thought that two performances stood out from all the rest.

Captain Bodgit already was considered a top Derby contender before his last race, the Wood Memorial Stakes, but it was the Wood that fully certified his merits.

The Aqueduct racing strip that day was so speed-favoring that no horse closed effectively in any other race on the card. Almost every serious handicapper was ready to throw out Captain Bodgit on account of the bias. Yet he overcame the adverse conditions, rallied and won with authority.

Yet, as good as Captain Bodgit was that day, no 3-year-old has looked better than Silver Charm did in defeat.

In the Santa Anita Derby, jockey Gary Stevens didn’t want to let the filly Sharp Cat get an uncontested lead, so he dueled with her through a gruelling pace - 6 furlongs in 1:09. Free House had a perfect trip stalking the leaders and shot by them, but when he did, Silver Charm surged back in the final yards and lost a tight photo finish. It was a heroic effort.

Silver Charm fully fits the profile of a Derby horse.

My Derby bet: Silver Charm to win, plus an exacta box with Captain Bodgit.