Stirring A Hotter Mideast Cauldron
In the ‘80s, Israel’s Mossad warned of nuclear weaponry being developed secretly by Saddam Hussein. The CIA disagreed; “not for 10 years” was its complacent judgment, which warped Bush administration policy. Now everyone admits that Mossad had it right.
One year ago, Israel shared with our Defense Intelligence Agency Mossad’s evidence and conclusions about a new proliferation threat from a supporter of terrorism.
We already knew that Iran was developing nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. What we did not know was this: “Massive Russian assistance and close cooperation with Iran are enabling the Iranian regime to develop independent capabilities to produce medium-range ballistic missile systems within a very short time.”
Every nation in the Near East uses a simple test to determine Iran’s military intentions: the range of the missiles it seeks to build. As long as that range stayed short of 700 miles, Saudis, Turks and Israelis did not become unduly alarmed. But sources revealed the existence of Shahab-3 and -4 missiles with ranges up to 1,240 miles, making them a threat to many capitals (not to mention threatening 20,000 U.S. military personnel in the vicinity). Thus did Iran signal aggressive intentions.
Early this year, mindful of past complacency, our DIA confirmed the Mossad’s information. It did not dispute the prediction that midrange missiles were within 18 months to two years of production inside Iran. And it agreed that, in many ways, Russians under loose Moscow control were making the new threat possible. Boris Yeltsin, at the June G-8 meeting in Denver, denied all. Because President Clinton did not want to use space aid or International Monetary Fund support for coercion, he could only warn that Congress would cut back aid if Moscow persisted in its Tehran adventure.
Israel then went public. Bill Gertz of The Washington Times wrote an exclusive series this month detailing some of the Mossad’s findings corroborated by U.S. intelligence. Congress is now awake to Russia’s breach of its arms proliferation agreement, despite our State Department’s admonition to Israel not to take its case there.
In Moscow last week, Vice President Gore had to publicly remind Prime Minister Chernomyrdin about Iran’s “vigorous” nuclear missile buildup. Privately, the Russians reminded Americans that they had fired Aleksandr Kotelkin last month as head of the nation’s arms export agency, Rosvooruzhenie, identified by Western agencies as riddled with corruption in the transfer of missile technology.
Gore thinks the threat is being countered by an investigating team headed by our diplomat Frank Wisner and their space agency head, Yuri Koptev.
The trouble is that Koptev - whose control over Russia’s space technology is symbolized by the condition of the Mir space station - is suspected of being part of the problem. Russian scientists are desperate for money, which Iran offers under the table. The trick for Koptev would be to keep America’s financial support while turning a blind eye to the money seeping up from Teheran.
In addition to the secret missile help, hundreds of Russian scientists are openly in Iran, building its Bushehr “civilian” reactor. But Iran sits on a sea of cheap oil; its only reason for a nuclear reactor is to produce plutonium isotopes for bombs.
Chernomyrdin would not budge on his “commitment” to a nuclear Iran, and as a sop to Congress offered to let the U.S. see the new plant. The rebuffed Gore replied dryly, “joint monitoring is the least of our concerns.”
Set aside differences about West Bank dealings that dominate the headlines. We see developing a fundamental split in the strategic views of Israel and the Clinton administration over matters affecting national survival.
Israel’s Netanyahu views Iran, with its inflammatory rhetoric now backed up with its cool decision to build missiles with warheads that could incinerate Tel Aviv, as Israel’s gravest threat.
America’s Clinton views our relationship with Russia, with its nuclear capacity and internal instability and democratic potential, as our top priority. Accordingly, he tolerates Russia’s open and secret support of Iran’s bid for nuclear missile coverage of Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
America sometimes must act unilaterally and trust that its allies will understand. Same with Israel. Before Iran’s conduct grows more blatant, Gore should sit down with Clinton to reassess U.S. policy toward Russia.
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