Tar Heels Rule Basketball Polls
All of the power ratings and polls are finally out with only one consensus.
North Carolina is No. 1 in all four - the Associated Press top 25 poll, the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll, the Sagarin power ratings and the Rating Percentage Index (RPI), considered the closest power rating to the one used by the NCAA Selection committee.
Which one can you trust to be the most accurate?
Certainly not the polls, which are based on opinion rather than any kind of mathematical fact.
The Sagarin ratings factor in margin of victory as well as a home edge.
The RPI treats every team equally, with the winning percentage the top priority, the team’s opponent’s winning percentage and the opponent’s opponents’ winning percentage making up the rating.
Both systems only consider Division 1 games. Two clear examples of the weight given to margin of victory are Utah and TCU. The Utes are No. 10 in the Sagarin, No. 50 in the RPI, with a schedule rated No. 243. TCU is No. 17 in the Sagarin, No. 108 in the RPI, with its schedule rated No. 280. Both teams beat up on opponents with weak winning percentages, gaining points primarily for their own winning percentages in the RPI, rather than their opponents’.
Fresno State has surfaced at No. 107 in the Sagarin and No. 147 in the RPI. To earn an at-large berth, history has shown the Bulldogs have to be no lower than 60. Seven teams below 45 in the RPI last year earned at-large berths, with the worst being No. 57 Georgetown.
Few chances are left for Fresno to pick up power ratings points (read: two games against No. 24 Hawaii). The best scenario is simply to improve a 4-6 Division 1 record, which doesn’t get any help with Saturday’s NAIA game against Hawaii-Hilo.
Keeping tabs
One-time ‘Dog: On a piece of paper, Kenny Brunner was a Bulldog before he opted out of the letter and found his way to Georgetown. It’s worth noting that he led Georgetown to an upset over West Virginia Wednesday with 15 points and eight assists. Brunner hasn’t deviated from his role as a true playmaker, averaging 8.8 assists and taking only 12 3-pointers. He has been instructed to set up the Hoyas offense, be the point on defense. He’s not trying to do much more than that this season.
Fabulous freshmen
Brunner has done what was expected. The expectations have risen for a few other freshmen. Ohio State’s Michael Redd, a find for the Buckeyes, leads them in scoring at 21.6 points and 6.9 rebounds a game and could challenge Connecticut point guard Khalid El-Amin (16.7 ppg., 4.6 apg), Georgia’s Jumaine Jones (14.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Georgia Tech’s Dion Glover (20.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) for national freshman of the year. Duke’s Elton Brand, who was leading the Blue Devils in scoring and rebounding, would have been a natural before breaking his foot last week.
None of these freshmen made the Wooden Award list, which still has typical preseason names like Kentucky’s Jeff Sheppard, UNC Charlotte’s DeMarco Johnson, Utah’s Michael Doleac, Texas Tech’s Cory Carr, Michigan’s Louis Bullock and Eastern Michigan’s Earl Boykins, none worthy candidates for player of the year right now.
Midyear impact
It’s true Ron Selleaze has been leading BYU in scoring since joining the Cougars, but it would be remiss not to mention the contributions of Albert White and Lester Earl. White, a transfer from Michigan, is averaging 10.3 points and 5.7 rebounds in three games in which Missouri has gone 2-1 to raise its record to 7-4. The latest win came over Maryland this week.
Earl has stepped in for the injured Raef Lafrentz in Kansas’ lineup and is averaging 8 points and 8.2 rebounds in five games. Earl had the benefit the first few games of not facing as much pressure in playing behind Lafrentz.
Now, he’ll have time to blossom. Kansas, still the national title choice with a healthy Lafrentz, has a few more bumps to get through without the player of the year. Kansas must go to Texas, Missouri and Nebraska without Lafrentz in the first tour of the Big 12.
Fastbreak points
The ACC may have the deepest conference, but no division is as strong as the SEC East, where a decent Florida (6-3) team is destined to finish last. The SEC favorites are Kentucky (11-2), South Carolina (8-1), Tennessee (10-0), which lost center Charles Hathaway for the year and may slip, Georgia (8-4) and Vanderbilt (11-2). The Commodores have the division’s hidden gem in Drew Maddux, a 17-point scorer, 4.3-rebounder, 51.3 percent and 40.7 percent 3-point shooter. Vanderbilt didn’t catch a break from the SEC scheduler with opening games at Kentucky and South Carolina… . It’s easy to spot which conferences are the fodder early in the season. All 11 Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference teams are under .500 as well as six of eight Ivy League and 8-of-10 Southland… . Six of eight West Coast Conference teams are above .500 and all 11 Big Ten teams are above average.