Dear winter: Please pay us a visit soon

Snow on the ground Thursday morning seemed so wimpy it left me wondering: Is this the best winter can do?

The season clearly hasn’t measured up to what we’ve come to expect in the Inland Northwest.

December snowfall was only half of normal, and temperatures for the month were nearly 5 degrees above average.

The “balmy” conditions peaked Sunday and Monday when bright sunshine and highs in the low 40s got people all over town out enjoying the weather.

At the same time, skiers are suffering. A lack of snow on the lower slopes and around lodges has left conditions marginal at best. One downhill skier described them as icy and treacherous. Even the lodges were being cautious. One snow report this week advised resort guests to “ski and ride with care” because of the hazards posed by a skimpy snowpack.

So where is winter, anyway?

I called one of my contacts at Eastern Washington University and asked him that question.

Bob Quinn, a professor of geography who is an expert on winter climate trends, said the culprit is El Nino for the mild season so far. El Nino is a weather phenomenon caused by unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The name comes from South American fishermen who recognized the heavy rains and depleted fish stocks on the Pacific coast at Christmastime.

El Nino occurs every three to seven years. Next to the change of seasons, El Nino is considered the most powerful force driving global weather patterns. The last occurrence in 1997-98 brought severe weather to California.

Peruvian fishermen may have noticed the effects of El Nino years ago, but scientists today tell us it occurs when trade winds along the equator subside and allow a wave of warm equatorial water to move from west to east across the Pacific toward South America.

The warmer water energizes the storm flow across the southern United States, putting California and the southwestern states in line for heavy rain and snow. The northern storm track shifts from the Pacific Northwest farther north into Canada. That leaves Washington, Oregon and North Idaho in a kind of void in which the strongest winter weather goes elsewhere.

Precipitation in Spokane was nearly 2 inches below normal for November and December, months that are important for recharging the region’s surface and ground water supplies.

Typical of El Nino, storms pounded California this week, causing floods and tossing boats ashore along the coast. The mountains of California have seen heavy snowfall.

This is good news for the drought-parched Southwest, where officials have been talking about ways to divvy up a limited supply of water in the Colorado River, Quinn said.

In the Inland Northwest, snowpacks are running at 70 percent or 80 percent of normal. If the trend continues through March, the region could see low stream flows and dry mountain conditions next spring and summer. Only 8 inches has fallen in Spokane so far this season, compared with a normal of 21 inches through Dec. 29. The holidays have been virtually snow free.

Quinn said he is not ready to write off the winter of 2004-2005 just yet.

He said a separate mass of warm water in the north Pacific could become a wild card as winter progresses. It seems that warm water causes air above it to rise. The rising air leads to lower air pressure, which enhances stormy weather off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Quinn said he expects some of those storms to bring snow and rain through the next two months.

“I see some relief coming …,” he said of the need for more snow in the mountains. “All you need is a big, hefty wet January and February, and you are fine.”

Let’s hope Quinn is right about more snow. Life in the Inland Northwest just isn’t right without it.