Election was Gregoire’s to lose

OLYMPIA _ For weeks, Democrats across Washington have watched the governor’s race election returns and asked themselves one simple question: what happened?

Their candidate ended 261 votes behind. And while a looming recount of the nearly 2.9 million ballots could put Christine Gregoire back in the lead, Democrats are left scratching their heads – and blaming each other – over a race that many thought they would easily win.

“The self-flagellation that we’re enjoying right now should be coming to an end soon,” said Cathy Allen, a Democratic political consultant who didn’t work on Gregoire’s campaign.

The election may not come to an end soon, however. After the machine recount ends next Wednesday, Allen predicts a second, longer hand recount of all the ballots. And state Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt seemed to agree Thursday, telling the Associated Press, “We see this as a two-recount process.”

However it ends, the race was clearly Gregoire’s to lose when she entered the race last year.

She had a national reputation as lead negotiator for the states’ multibillion-dollar settlement with the tobacco industry. She was a woman attorney general with big name recognition statewide. And she seemed like an unstoppable force at the polls, having steamrolled Republican challengers three times in a row by margins of as much as 24 percentage points.

Dino Rossi, her Republican opponent in the governor’s race was a Republican real estate agent with a short political resume and little name recognition outside his native Sammamish Plateau.

“By all polls, she was clearly head and shoulders above the rest,” said David Olson, political science professor at the University of Washington.

But throughout this year, Olson and other observers say, Gregoire’s advantage at the starting line was eroded by a combination of factors. Some were surprises, others were unavoidable, but nearly all were small things, probably shifting the margin only slightly toward Rossi. Together, however, they may end up costing Gregoire the race.

“It’s a death of a thousand cuts or, for Rossi, a victory of a thousand acorns,” said John Gastil, a UW associate professor of communications and a former campaign manager in California and New Mexico races.

In some ways, Gregoire’s resume and name recognition worked against her.

“Lots of people had voted for her in the past, so there was that comfort level there. But also, your opponent can stick you with anything bad that’s gone on,” said Travis Ridout, assistant political science professor at Washington State University.

And Rossi did. He – and independent groups supporting him – repeatedly referred to the biggest mistake of Gregoire’s career: the failure of her subordinates to file an appeal in a $20 million judgment against the state.

Washington’s peculiar election timeline also worked against Gregoire. Until September, she was trying to fend off an attack from the left: liberal Democrat Ron Sims was also running for governor. His dramatic campaign platform centered around tax reform, including launching a state income tax. Republicans were gleeful and Sims lost the September primary in a landslide. But the months-long battle between the passionate Sims and the more moderate, play-it-safe Gregoire clearly cost her votes among the liberal party faithful.

As evidence of that, Olson cites Pierce County, long a stronghold of labor Democrats. Rossi narrowly won there.

“She didn’t carry Pierce County. That’s unthinkable for a Democrat in this era,” said Olson. Many Democrats there clearly sat out the governor’s race, he said.

“It was clear that Gregoire was positioning herself as the safe candidate,” said Gastil. “She was going to just be the Democratic standard-bearer.”

Then, with less than two months to go to the general election, Gregoire “had to pivot to the right and run against Rossi,” Olson said. That gave her precious little time to try to define Rossi in a way that voters wouldn’t like. She and supporters tried, describing him as a social conservative who was too extreme for Washington, but there wasn’t much time for that message to stick.

“It was a dollar short and an hour late,” said Olson.

Rossi, on the other hand, hadn’t had any serious competition in the Republican primary. He had all year to raise money and meet with people throughout the state.

“If we would have had a June primary, this would have been an entirely different race,” Olson said.

Rossi also benefited from a simple message. After 20 years of Democratic governors, he said, he’d be a red-tape-slashing force for change.

“We were busy out there talking about how bad Bush was and how Dino was another homegrown Bush,” said Allen. “What people saw was someone who was talking about the economy and jobs.”

That won Rossi critical votes among Latinos in places like Yakima and Benton County, according to exit polls. It also won him votes from voters 18 to 26 years old.

“A woman Democrat not winning that age group? Unthinkable,” said Olson. “Rossi’s message stuck: that Democrats have ruled Olympia for 20 years and it’s a mess.”

Gregoire’s message about the economy – 250,000 new jobs in four years, she vowed – was largely lost.” People did not believe that, mostly because she’s a Democrat,” Allen said.

Larry Sabato, a professor of political science at the University of Virginia and author of several books on elections, said one of the oldest motivating forces in elections is the desire for change.

“Voters believe that it isn’t a good idea for one party to have everything, all the time… almost as a way of preserving choice for the future,” said Sabato, who also serves as a guest political analyst for national news programs. “It seems 16 to 20 years is a tipping point anticipating party change.”

The strength of Republicans’ “ground game” also startled Democrats. Knocking on doors and getting out the vote has long been Democrats’ strong suit, largely because they can rely on the organizational skills of labor unions.

“They put a tactical force against us as good or better than ours,” said Allen.

But the war is not yet over. The recount is expected to last through the middle of next week. If the margin remains close, on Dec. 2 either candidate or party can ask for a hand recount of all the ballots, a process that could take a week or more.

“I’m looking at this as more of a Christmas present than something to be thankful for on Thanksgiving,” Allen said.