Election strategists zero in on our fears

COLUMBUS, Ohio – To listen to the presidential candidates, Americans have more to fear than fear itself.

From lost jobs to deaths in Iraq to the shadow of terrorism, anxiety and worry long have been the driving emotions in this election. Now, both campaigns are seeking to exploit and expand those fears, often by exaggerating their rival’s positions.

“They are certainly trying to demonize the other guy and scare the heck out of the voters in a variety of ways,” said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

President Bush says a John Kerry victory would mean a more dangerous world and higher taxes for most Americans; Kerry, meanwhile, says a second Bush term would wreck Social Security, deepen the quagmire in Iraq and probably revive the military draft.

The campaigns, of course, say they are discussing issues – it’s the other guy who’s creating a political version of Halloween.

“George Bush is running around trying to scare Americans,” Kerry told Ohio supporters recently, referring to Bush’s claim that Kerry’s spending plans would require tax hikes on nearly all Americans, not just the wealthy.

Bush, countering the Kerry claim that Bush policies could force a draft, said in Florida: “No matter what my opponent tries to tell people and scare them, we will have an all-volunteer Army.”

Voters in Ohio, one of the nation’s key swing states, say there is much to be anxious about.

Some cited a special worry: the presidential candidates themselves.

“It’s either vote for Kerry and let him get into my wallet or vote for Bush and let him kill my kids,” said Scott Johnson, 53, a doctor who lives in Upper Arlington, a suburb of Columbus. “People are worried that Kerry is going to be fiscally irresponsible and that George has an irresponsible foreign policy.”

Johnson also said, “I want to be a Republican – badly – but W won’t let me.”

For other voters, the anxiety level depends on party – Democrats fear the Bush presidency; Republicans fear the potential ascension of Kerry.

“We are just facing so many problems and challenges,” said Connie Fisher, 48, attending a Kerry rally in Xenia. “The current administration cannot see them or deny they exist.”

Her litany included “the war in Iraq — health care and the issues we have with benefits and coverage — our educational system … I see people who lose their jobs every single day.”

Yet a Kerry presidency would only worsen these problems, said Republicans who saw Vice President Dick Cheney speak Tuesday in Carroll. Dana Fularz, who owns an interior decorating business, said she remains confident about the future — as long as Bush is re-elected.

“If Kerry becomes president, I’m definitely worried,” she said.

In many ways, analysts said, fear-mongering is as old as American politics.

As the Founding Fathers split into warring political parties, the Thomas Jefferson forces accused John Adams of wanting to bring back the British monarchy; the Adams people said a Jefferson presidency would lead to French Revolution-style anarchy.

A heavy amount of political vitriol also flowed through Vietnam, the Civil War, and the Great Depression, the latter inspiring President Franklin Roosevelt’s famed inaugural statement: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Economic anxiety, while high, pales in comparison to the hard times of the depression. And while people fear a new terrorist attack over the next two weeks — some citing the pre-election bombing in Spain — the percentages are lower than they were immediately after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

“The hype is probably higher because it’s the first post-9/11 election,” said Karlyn Bowman, who analyzes polls for the American Enterprise Institute. “That’s a pretty central aspect of a president’s job now: Protect us from terrorism.”

Aides to the Bush and Kerry campaigns said their candidates are only trying to address the worries they hear from constituents.

“The fear is there,” said Mike McCurry, a communications strategist for the Massachusetts senator. “What’s happening is that campaigns are trying to tap into that and figure out a way to channel it into something productive.”

He and other Kerry aides said they hear all the time from college students about the draft; from laborers about outsourcing; from military families about the dangers of Iraq; and from senior citizens who fear allowing private accounts for Social Security recipients will suck too much money from the system.

Bush backers said Democrats are stoking these fears, such as telling black voters that the GOP plans to “intimidate” them into not voting. They said the Social Security plan will not affect current recipients, and there are absolutely no plans to revive the draft.

“It’s no coincidence that when John Kerry went down in the polls, he started making false allegations in order to scare voters,” said Christine Iverson, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.

Kerry aides said the Bushies are the ones doing the scaring, particularly about terrorism.

Vice President Dick Cheney said the nation could “get hit again” if voters “make the wrong choice,” a comment he later tried to clarify. During his town hall meeting in Carroll on Tuesday, he warned of the real possibility of chemical, biological and nuclear attacks on American cities. Bush has said his rival would rely too much on international organizations, and his policies would be “dangerous to world peace.”

Some Democrats have long suspected that terrorism alerts have been manipulated to help Bush politically. In particular, they cite a warning of a threat to financial institutions issued just after Kerry’s nominating convention in July.

Kerry and aides said he would never cede American security to any international organization. Spokesman Chad Clanton said Republicans “have really used the war on terror as a political weapon. People resent that.”

Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt said: “There are legitimate issues to discuss in the context of this debate.”

Rothenberg, who publishes a weekly political newsletter in Washington, said he detects a sour mood in the country.

“These are life and death and security types of issues,” Rothenberg said. “These are very strong issues; these are some pretty tough messages.”

A high level of anxiety normally would not bode well for an incumbent. But Rothenberg said most of the fear stems from terrorism, an issue on which the Republican stills hold an advantage over his Democratic challenger.

And while anxiety may drive some votes, both campaigns agreed on one thing — winning requires a positive message, too.

“I don’t think you can get elected being entirely negative,” McCurry said. “The winner will be the one who takes that anxiety and transform it into hope.”