More hurricanes than usual ahead

WASHINGTON – There will be more hurricanes than usual this year, the government predicted Tuesday, raising its forecast for the number of all storms expected in the Atlantic Ocean this season to between 18 and 21.

Seven storms – two of them major hurricanes – have already developed since the season began June 1. And before the season ends Nov. 30, 11 to 14 more are expected, with from seven to nine of those becoming hurricanes, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

“Much of the season’s activity is still to come,” said Gerry Bell, a meteorologist for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA’s initial prediction for the 2005 season, made in May, anticipated 12 to 15 storms. The long-term mean is 10 a year.

“This may well be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record and will be the ninth above-record Atlantic hurricane season in the last 11 years,” said David L. Johnson, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.

Of the predicted seven to nine hurricanes, three to five of those are expected to be major hurricanes. The minimum wind speed for a hurricane is 74 miles per hour; a major hurricane has sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more. Of the storms so far this season, hurricanes Dennis and Emily were considered major.

NOAA researchers said that above-normal hurricane seasons were anticipated for several decades because tropical conditions in the Atlantic basin – which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea – produced storm activity in 20- to 30-year cycles.