Base closings smaller than expected, Rumsfeld says

WASHINGTON – Military base closings will be less severe than expected, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld indicated Thursday, saying he had scaled back his recommendations because the military had less surplus space than once estimated.

He predicted that his list of closures and realignments, if approved, would result in a net savings to the government of $48.8 billion over 20 years. That figure takes into account a recurring annual savings of $5.5 billion, partly offset by billions in closure expenses.

Previous estimates of savings from base closings have proven to be overly optimistic, although the Pentagon says it has recorded a net gain of about $18 billion from four previous rounds. Environmental cleanup is one of the biggest upfront costs.

More than two years in the making and wrapped in strict secrecy, the Rumsfeld recommendations on which of the Pentagon’s 425 domestic bases to close, shrink or expand are scheduled to be delivered this morning to a congressionally chartered commission.

Loren Thompson, a military analyst with the Lexington Institute think tank, noted that a net savings of $2.4 billion a year – $48 billion divided by 20 years – is the equivalent of cutting one major weapons program.

“The big story here is not going to be saving money. The big story is going to be preparing the force for future threats by moving it to more logical locations,” Thompson said.

He predicted forces will move to the West Coast from the East since threats in Europe have been replaced by concerns emerging from across the Pacific. In addition, more forces could move south, where land is cheaper than in the Northeast.

Rumsfeld said the Pentagon stands ready to help ease the negative impact of base closings on communities that have long supported the military.