Filibuster fight about to break loose

WASHINGTON – Senate Republicans set the stage for a showdown Tuesday over the filibusters blocking several of President Bush’s judicial nominees, a historic vote that could determine whether an out-of-power party can stop a president from placing like-minded jurists on the nation’s highest courts.

Unless compromise-minded centrists can strike a deal before then, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist will force a test vote Tuesday on Texas judge Priscilla Owen’s nomination to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

Under the expected chain of events set in motion Friday: If the nomination doesn’t garner 60 votes – the threshold for overcoming a filibuster – Frist then will have the presiding officer, expected to be Vice President Dick Cheney in his role as Senate president, declare that filibusters are illegal for Supreme Court and federal appellate court nominees.

The Republican majority presumably then would uphold that ruling, a procedure that has become known as the “nuclear option” because senators say it would blow up relations between the two parties.

“The Senate clock centered above the vice president’s chair is in a countdown, second by second, to the appointed hour and minute when a nuclear explosion may render the Senate inoperative, or at least do substantial damage to this institution,” said Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa.

GOP Sen. John Cornyn, a former judge who served with Owen on the Texas Supreme Court, started the countdown Friday by demanding a vote on her nomination. When Democratic leader Harry Reid blocked that vote, Cornyn called for the Tuesday test vote that would lead to a decision on the filibusters of all seven of Bush’s blocked judicial nominees.

Democrats argue that they are within their rights to filibuster judicial nominees and that Republicans are overstepping the bounds by trying to stop them. They threaten to block the president’s legislative agenda if Frist is successful at eliminating judicial filibusters.

“This extralegal changing of the Senate rules will cause a permanent tear in the Senate fabric because it violates a deeply held American value – playing by the rules,” said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.

While it takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, Republicans intend to supersede the rule by a simple majority vote. With 55 seats, Republicans could afford five defections if all 100 members vote and still prevail on the strength of Cheney’s ability to break ties.

Reid told a group of columnists during the day he was within two votes of having the strength to prevail in a showdown, indicating that four Republicans have agreed to break ranks and side with the Democrats.

Separately, Republicans said they had received fresh polling that indicated the debate over judges has coincided with a dip in their approval ratings, but a larger decline in Democratic support. Even so, only 37 percent of those surveyed support the change in Senate procedures, with 50 percent opposed, according to officials familiar with the survey.