It’s time for a fantasy evaluation
Thanksgiving is the time of the year where the games matter most for fantasy players.
As much as I’d like to blame the motor oil my in-laws pass off as gravy, many holiday meals have been poorly digested only due to unwelcome events during the NFL portion of the day.
In most leagues, Thanksgiving is right around trading deadline time. We don’t talk much here about the mechanics of fantasy football. But the current state of a team I drafted for an old college buddy perfectly illustrates common pitfalls. I wondered how he could be struggling with Larry Johnson and all the other lottery tickets I secured for him at running back. But he never cashed in guys like Mewelde Moore, Stephen Davis and Tatum Bell.
Depth is overrated right now. The byes are over. The winners know you have to roll the dice on injuries, trade surplus talent and upgrade your starting lineup wherever possible.
Injuries seemingly have had a bigger than usual impact on fantasy fortunes in 2005. In Week 11, Antonio Gates was carted off and Marc Bulger reportedly re-injured his shoulder (though he also received a concussion on the same play, courtesy of a blown blitz pickup by RB Steven Jackson). The MRI was negative on Gates, who is day to day. Bulger’s status is unknown.
Drew Brees was dynamic Sunday, but losing Gates will certainly throw a big monkey wrench into the Chargers pass offense. Ignore all the tough talk emanating out of San Diego on how Air Marty (Schottenheimer) will continue to soar without No. 85.
Matchups are so crucial at this time of year. For example, Aaron Brooks was a great play last week against New England, who Garth Brooks could now torch for 300 yards and a couple of TDs. Next week against the Jets? Not so good. Byron Leftwich had it easy last week against Tennessee and gets a Charmin soft Arizona secondary in Week 12.
Buy
Ben Watson (TE, Patriots): If you need to replace Antonio Gates, Watson offers the most upside of the guys likely to be on waiver wires. I’ve been itching to recommend Watson since he ran down CB Chris Gamble on a punt return in Week 2. He also has great hands at 253 pounds.
Jamie Martin (QB, Rams): If Marc Bulger is out, Martin will play well. He’ll be facing weak secondaries with three great receivers (yes, Kevin Curtis, the NFL’s smartest player according to Wonderlic testing, is that good). Plus, the Rams defense turns every contest into a video game.
Darrell Jackson (WR, Seahawks): He likely won’t return from his knee injury until Week 13, but could play big dividends come playoff time. With the Niners, Titans and Colts awaiting during fantasy playoff weeks, Jackson offers considerable upside to teams with a spotty third WR.
Hold
Reuben Droughns (RB, Browns): I swear that when I was asked who the 2005 Droughns was going to be in August, I was set to say “Droughns” before settling on Willie Parker. Reuben is quietly on pace for 1,400 rushing yards and gets the Vikings in Week 12.
Sell
Roddy White (WR, Falcons): He’s starting now but you can’t trust him. Michael Vick has never thrown for more than two TDs and had only his second 300-yard game last week. Here’s the average rookie season for first-round WRs since 1990: 34-472-3.
Kurt Warner (QB, Cardinals): Yes, he has almost 1,000 passing yards the last three weeks, the WRs are great and the defense stinks. But Dennis Green is very fickle with QBs. Could Josh McCown start another game without Warner getting hurt? Absolutely.