Jets’ tight end Baker a good buy
Though we’ve all been waiting for it for a long time, it’s just one week. Drawing conclusions based on such a miniscule sample size is dangerous.
Value players based on early season performance under three conditions: they have new roles, they’re elevated to prominence due to injury or they’re continuing performance trends displayed during the latter part of 2004.
The objective here each week is to help you sell high and buy low. Sounds obvious, right? But most owners do the opposite: overpay for players doing well and sell off underachieving players at steep discounts. That’s why the same people win and lose every year in the vast majority of leagues.
You never absolutely know when a player is overachieving or underachieving, as opposed to suddenly being very good or, say, stinking. As Nobel Laureate Nils Bohr once said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” But we’ll be your eyes and ears here each week for what’s going on around the league. And we’ll crunch the numbers for our unconventional statistics that better predict player performance.
Though mistakes are unavoidable, staying disciplined in your investing allows you to marginalize them. To use football parlance, buying low and selling high turns mistakes into field goals and successes into touchdowns.
Market value exists independently of our recommendations. When we say to sell a guy, he’s likely doing well enough for you to extract top dollar. Conversely, don’t overpay for our “buy” guys because the market usually thinks worse of them than we do.
Buy
Chris Baker (TE, Jets): After dispatching of Doug Jolley during training camp to become the starter, Baker smoked the Chiefs (7-124-1). The usual garbage-time caveats apply, but Baker has hybrid receiving ability and offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger’s tight ends caught 83 passes last year.
Frank Gore (RB, Niners): Gore ran harder Sunday than Kevan Barlow, who continued his 2004 slide. Barlow’s TD gives you some free agent cover this week to nab Gore and hope he can develop into the starting back for the Niners over the next month.
Robert Ferguson (WR, Packers): Ferguson has size and speed and now a starting job with Javon Walker’s ACL blown. In 2003, Ferguson caught a team-high 64 percent of the passes thrown his way. Think 1,000 yards and seven or eight TDs.
Hold
Larry Johnson (RB, Chiefs): Last year, Johnson averaged a TD every 13.5 plays (runs plus intended receiver). He’s going to get at least that many plays per game this year even if Priest Holmes stays in one piece (because it’s obvious he’s better than Holmes). Double-digit TDs are thus very likely.
Carnell Williams (RB, Bucs): Since 1990, 23 rookie running backs have run for 1,000 yards. Don’t elevate Williams to sure-fire fantasy RB until he proves he’s the goal-line back.
Sell
Patrick Crayton (WR, Cowboys): The Cowboys like this former QB, who is in his second year. But he’s their No. 3 receiver and, even though we don’t like Jason Witten, Dallas’ tight end is going to be more involved most weeks.
Frisman Jackson (WR, Browns): The Browns best WR on Sunday (8-128, 68-yard TD), but the 2004 practice squad graduate remains No. 4 on the depth chart, with little chance of moving up.
Willie Parker (RB, Steelers): We noted Parker as a threat to Jerome Bettis in our RB preview, but last week was a perfect storm for him: both starters hurt and the inviting Titans defense in the Steelers’ home opener. Bettis and Duce Staley loom and Parker’s value likely never be higher.