3 options focus of Iraq debate

WASHINGTON – As pressure mounts for a change of course in Iraq, the Bush administration is groping for a viable new strategy for the president to unveil by Christmas, with deliberations focusing on three main options to redefine the U.S. military and political engagement, according to officials familiar with the debate.

Major alternatives include a short-term increase of 15,000 to 30,000 U.S. troops to secure Baghdad and accelerate the training of indigenous forces. Another strategy would redirect the U.S. military away from internal strife to focus on hunting terrorists affiliated with al-Qaida. The third would concentrate political attention on supporting the majority Shiites and abandon U.S. efforts to reach out to Sunni insurgents.

As President Bush and his advisers rush to complete their crash review and craft a new formula in the next two weeks, some close to the process said the major goal seems to be to stake out alternatives to the plan presented this week by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. The White House denied trying to brush off the study group’s report and said those recommendations are being considered alongside internal reviews.

But the growing undercurrent of discussions within the administration is shifting responsibility for Iraq’s problems to Iraqis. The sources spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the deliberations.

Bush will devote most of next week to his Iraq review.

He plans to visit the State Department on Monday to consult with his foreign policy team, then he will host independent Iraq experts in the Oval Office. The White House review – which involves the State Department, National Security Council, CIA and Pentagon – is expected to lead to a speech to the nation the week of Dec. 18, officials say.

While one of the options involves increasing U.S. troops, there is no agreement on what the mission of those forces would be, sources say. Discussions center on accelerating the training of Iraqi forces and helping to secure Baghdad before turning it over to the Iraqis. The goal generally could be to improve Iraq’s defense capabilities so U.S. combat troops could begin to withdraw faster.

The second idea is the “al-Qaida option,” which would transform the U.S. mission to focus on fighting terrorism and would disengage forces from domestic aspects of the multisided conflict. U.S. troops would take a back seat on the Shiite-Sunni conflict and instead hunt down al-Qaida operatives, the sources say.

The two military options are not necessarily linked. Some in the interagency discussions favor both, while others support the al-Qaida option but not a military surge, the sources say.

On the political front, the administration is focusing increasingly on variations of a “Shiite tilt,” sometimes called an “80 percent solution,” that would bolster the political center of Iraq and effectively leave in charge the Shiite and Kurdish parties that account for 80 percent of Iraq’s 26 million people and that won elections a year ago.

Vice President Dick Cheney’s office has most vigorously argued for the “80 percent solution,” in terms of both realities on the ground and the history of U.S. engagement with the Shiites, sources say.