Bird flu wouldn’t close U.S. borders, response plan says

WASHINGTON – The government forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza breaks out, with as much as 40 percent of the national work force off the job, but it doesn’t foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the illness’ spread, according to a draft of a national response plan obtained Monday.

An outbreak could lead the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travelers and otherwise restrict movement in and around the country.

But a complete shutdown of U.S. borders would not be likely nor would it do more than slow the pandemic’s spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by Bush administration officials for release Wednesday.

“While we will consider all options to limit the spread of a pandemic virus, we recognize complete border closure would be difficult to enforce, present foreign affairs complications and have significant negative social and economic consequences,” the 228-page draft report says.

Pandemics can strike when the easy-to-mutate influenza virus shifts to a strain that people have never experienced, something that has happened three times in the past century. The government is preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States.

Concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might lead to a pandemic if it starts spreading from person to person.

H5N1 has struck more than 200 people since 2003, killing about half of them. Virtually all the victims caught bird flu through close contact with infected poultry or droppings.

The response plan says preparedness for a pandemic could take years, so significant steps must be taken immediately across all levels of government and the private sector to protect national security, the economy and the basic functioning of society.

The report aims to energize the private sector, noting that 85 percent of the systems that are vital to society, such as food production, medicine and financial services, are privately run.

“While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it has the potential ultimately to threaten all critical infrastructure by its impact on an organization’s human resources by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months,” the report says.

It envisions possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National Guard troops or request federal troops to maintain order.

Last fall, President Bush announced a $7.1 billion strategy to fight the next flu pandemic, focusing largely on public health preparations – including plans to stockpile enough bird flu vaccine for 20 million people and anti-flu drugs for 81 million. So far, the stockpile contains enough vaccine for only 4 million people and medication for only 5 million.

This new report is Step 2, outlining how every branch of government would have to work together with federal health officials to try to contain a pandemic and minimize its damage to the economy and society. By early next month, government agencies are to release the specific steps they plan.

With no border restrictions, pandemic influenza would arrive in the United States within two months of an outbreak abroad, the document estimates. But models of influenza’s spread suggest that sealing U.S. borders not only would be impractical – 1.1 million people cross the nation’s 317 offi-cial ports of entry daily – but also would only delay the inevitable by a few weeks, the report says.

The new document promises that the Bush administration will create a “toolkit” of options to help mayors, governors and transportation officials decide what, if any, restrictions on travel would be appropriate at different stages of a pandemic.

It calls a mandatory quarantine a last resort and urges planners to consider, for example, that closing a community would sever it from the delivery of groceries and other necessities.