Slaying has Lebanon bracing for fallout

BEIRUT, Lebanon – Lebanon began three days of mourning Wednesday following the assassination of an up-and-coming anti-Syrian political leader whose death became a rallying cry for the country’s shaky pro-Western government.

As hundreds of anguished supporters carried Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel’s flag-draped coffin through his Christian hometown in the mountains above Beirut, Lebanon’s rival political factions braced for the fallout.

Gemayel’s daylight assassination on Tuesday generated immediate international sympathy for Prime Minister Fuad Saniora as he tries to fend off an attempt by Hezbollah, the country’s powerful Shiite Muslim Islamic group, to topple his U.S.-backed coalition government.

It also complicated Hezbollah’s efforts to use its increased political stature following its 34-day war with Israel to boost its influence in the Lebanese government. “The only winner in this is the Saniora government,” said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut.

A Hezbollah success in toppling the Saniora government would be a major setback to American efforts to spread democracy in the Middle East.

Until Gemayel was shot to death while driving through a Christian neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon had been preparing for a showdown between the government and Hezbollah supporters, who were expected to take their demands for more political power to the streets in protests as early as today.

But Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have been forced to postpone the demonstrations and rethink their strategy. While few believe that Hezbollah played a direct role in killing Gemayel, mourners turned their anger on the militia because of its close ties to Syria, which many suspect is behind a string of political assassinations stretching back to the February 2005 death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

While Hezbollah is postponing its plans for demonstrations, Gemayel’s funeral in downtown Beirut today is expected to serve as a political platform for the Saniora government. Tens of thousands of people are expected to turn out.